Oil & Gas Pro

Declining Haynesville Region & Western Haynesville Play: Shreveport Geological Society Presentation

Note:  The presentation is March 17 at the Petroleum Club in Shreveport.  I will put a link below the article for those who may wish to sign up.

Declining Haynesville Region and the New Western Haynesville Play

Presented by: William D. DeMis & Kevin B. Hill

Abstract

Natural gas will be short in supply in the Gulf Coast in four years. An accounting of the additions into, and subtractions out of, the US Gulf Coast shows there will be a shortfall of 11.5 BCFG/day by 2029. This shortfall will force prices up.

Gas pipelines will bring 7 BCFG per day of Permian gas into the Gulf Coast by 2029. LNG exports out of the Gulf Coast will increase by another 11 BCFG per day. Large data centers might add 1 BCFG per day in demand.  Planned additions of liquified natural gas exports out of the Gulf Coast are 13 BCFG/day. In addition, the Haynesville Region might decline another 6 BCFG per day.

Haynesville Region dominates Gulf Coast gas supply. The entire Haynesville Region is in decline, as shown by IEA data. Gas production for the Haynesville Region has slid below 15 BCFG/day and continues to decline. Haynesville field proper (the area over the Sabine uplift) has declined by 1 BCFG/day since 2023. The field might have reached its “geologic limit.”

The Barnette and Fayetteville shale plays provide useful analogues in predicting the coming decline in Haynesville Region. Shale gas plays decline very quickly once plays reach their “geologic limit.” Using the Barnette and Fayetteville plays as analogues, the Haynesville Region might decline by another 6 BCFG/day by 2028.

All the leases in Haynesville field are held by production. Several major operators of the Haynesville field have said they will be reluctant to stand up rigs until the prices are above $3.50. So, either by “geologic limit” or by operator discretion, there will be less Haynesville gas to depress prices going forward. Operators will now make preserving shareholders’ value a priority. They have no incentive to “drill baby drill” (over-drilling in Haynesville field drove down natural gas prices in 2023).

The western Haynesville field is an ultra-deep play with horizontal wells landing at 17,000 to 19,000’ TVD. Western Haynesville wells have impressive Initial Potentials of 30 to 40 MMCFG per day. Estimated Ultimate Recoveries are circa 32 BCFG per well. Wells that have been producing for 20 months have produced 12 BCFG and are still producing 13 MMCFG per day. This rate is 2.5 times the rate of a “classic” Haynesville field well at 20 months! Natural gas production from the Western Haynesville play might reach 1.5 BCFG/day by 2030.

Seismic shows the Western Haynesville wells are drilled in Haynesville-Bossier strata that dips steeply into the East Texas basin. The strata are cut by normal faults. Some syn-depositional growth can be seen on seismic along the play. The sweet spots of the play seem to be basin-ward of the Cotton Valley shelf edge, down-dip of areas where siliciclastic input is possible. Slope and basin-floor thin (<1 foot) turbidite sands might be contributing to the excellent flow rates and shallower declines in Western Haynesville field vs Haynesville field.

The play is currently very narrow in map view. However, Expand Energy wildcat outpost in Houston County suggests the play might be broad. The Bobby Yancey has an 8,000’ lateral at 17.300’ TVD. The well is rumored to have an Initial Potential 50 MMCFG per day.

It is unlikely the Western Haynesville play will replace the coming shortfall in natural gas volumes, but doubtless more discoveries will be made in the Western Haynesville trend.

 

https://sgs1.org/events/2026-03-17-monthly-meeting?utm_source=Maili...

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Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 19, 2026 at 9:58

There was a good slide on why the deeper Haynesville has challenges.  If I recall correctly, it is interrupted by intrusions from salt  domes.  That slide should be available on the SGS website once it is uploaded.


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by phoenix on March 20, 2026 at 10:06

The  wells being drilled now in Sabine Parish in 7N 12W by Ensight the Blakely and the Iron Horse by GEP are similar to the western Haynesville Texas wells.  In that they are deeper, higher pressure and coming off the Sabine Uplift.  And word on the ground is that they are both making good wells.


landownerPermalink Reply by Cole Prothro on March 24, 2026 at 10:18

How do they come up with this information bc wasn’t it a couple months ago the dnr put out a massive number that they estimated to be in the Haynesville, also with the wells that they’re drilling in the supposed played out play are still coming on daily at 30 - 40 mmcf a day still in the heart of the play without even hitting the outer areas of the play that proved to still be profitable. I know I test and take care of several 15 yr old wells still doing over a million a day a piece so I was just inquiring what there point is based off of. Esp after the first round of the Haynesville when prices dipped everyone was saying the play was played out back then only to come back and start drilling multi section wells that are turning out good numbers. Almost looks like a ploy to allow the mineral purchasers a window to buy peoples fortunes.


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Rock Man on March 24, 2026 at 11:16
The authors of this paper are taking a VERY high altitude look at the traditional Haynesville. And an even higher altitude viewpoint of the Western HV / Bossier gas potential. Their comments about Permian Basin gas transmission lines coming to the Gulf Coast was grossly understated. Plus they failed to address the multiple landing zone / bench potential of the Western Trend. Overall, a thought provoking presentation that should prompt viewers to look deeper into this entire situation.

Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 24, 2026 at 11:51

Cole, two facts influence the analysis in my opinion.  The number of remaining undrilled proven well locations and the fact that HA operators now drill fewer wells per section.  They started at 8, went to 6 and now 5 is the norm.  There are some step out wells that we are waiting on information but  there is no hard data at this time.  The level of development is much higher in the north third of the play. And since there is no economic Bossier that far north, the end isn't far off for those HA units.  The focus of drilling is now the southern third of the fairway.

Those 30 - 40 mmcf wells produce 80% of their lifetime volume in the first 24 to 30 months.  I don't recall anyone saying the play was finished when the operators over produced and crashed the price.  There were a lot more undrilled locations back then and consolidation has served to slow the pace of drilling by the remaining operators.  Some of that does impact mineral companies but not in the way you imagine.  I am seeing the highest offers in the history of the Haynesville Shale.  There is an obvious reason for that - an increase in the number of companies competing to buy HA minerals and the fact that much as already been bought and there is much less that remains with the mineral owners.


landownerPermalink Reply by Cole Prothro on March 24, 2026 at 13:50

Thankya for your reply skip do you think that’s why they’re gonna implement more n more of the U-turn laterals to get more out of an area since the state has their spacing regulations

we still own our minerals but definitely no lack of purchase offers and their brazen with the verbiage that they use if they write a letter talking about your neighbor already sold theirs you may as well too so you don’t have to worry about the inconvenience of dealing with production companies etc 


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 24, 2026 at 14:10

Cole, as the competition for HA minerals increases, some companies (individual staffers) lean into antics that are certainly disingenuous.  Mainly from pressure from their bosses.  It is hard to convey just have competitive and cut throat the business is.  A good example is an offer that expires in three days.  Total BS!  I've never seen a mineral company walk away because a mineral owner didn't agree in three days.  In fact what happens after the three days passes is usually a higher offer.  That is because of competition!

U-Turn wells have become the means to drill a long lateral well without having to make an agreement with an adjoining unit operator.  We will see many more.  The spacing regulations are the same.  Where an operator has a "stranded unit" (they do not operate the unit to the north or south), a U-Turn well leaves them in total control of developing their unit.  No need to negotiate or compromise with another operator. 

That neighbor that already sold (if indeed they really did) likely got a sub fair market sales price.  Just what mineral companies strive to accomplish.  I have no issue with those who wish to sell.  I only wish for them to get the true fair market value at the time.  That requires knowing the game and the details that add value.


landownerPermalink Reply by Cole Prothro on March 24, 2026 at 15:04

Thank you much for the insight on the subject at hand you’re always an awesome arrow to have in the quiver 


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 24, 2026 at 15:36

You're welcome, Cole.


landownerPermalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on March 26, 2026 at 4:48

If I remember correctly, Kevin Hill bashed the Haynesville Shale early on and turned out to be dead wrong!  He will likely be wrong about the Western Haynesville as well.  Obviously, Jerry Jones thinks so.  Why would anyone pay any attention to him now?  Exco has made several excellent wells in 14/13 doing infield drilling even though the sections were thought to be "drilled up".  I'm looking forward to eventually having horizontal Cotton Valley wells drilled on some of my minerals.


Oil & Gas ProPermalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on March 26, 2026 at 5:07

The Western Haynesville succeeds or fails on its economics.  Not just demand but well costs and pipeline takeaway capacity to the Gulf Coast.  Natural Gas futures do not look promising for 2026 at this point but things can change.  They may be changing now.  Comstock needs a drastic drop in well costs or much higher natural gas prices.  Neither is a sure thing.

I would hesitate to use EXCO as a trend in infill drilling.  The vast majority of their wells were drilled early and badly under stimulated to the point that refracs are not an option.  If I see other HA operators applying for new wells that are similar to EXCO's, I'll post it.


landownerPermalink Reply by Birdsview 20 hours ago
Hey Cole I fully agree with you on that comment about the ploy to allow mineral purchasers to buy up all the peoples fortunes. I fully agree with that and in other words, they are stealing peoples blessings, which is not right at all.

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