Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Snake Stewart on January 6, 2009 at 13:52

Well if you have to do that to her, make sure its prior to the Bowling Championships please.

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Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on January 6, 2009 at 14:22

No one knows the call KB on where the core is, I would think that stuff will double as the play goes South and East maybe triple, but I am not a science person.

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Permalink Reply by BirdDawg, plain ole' idiot on January 6, 2009 at 12:47

Jay,
Do you think that they will not drill possibly 8 wells per section in the good areas? If they did, would your recovery estimate increase?

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 6, 2009 at 15:18

CHESAPEAKE ESTIMATES = 36 BCF - 68 BCF/per section @ 80 acre spacing

PETROHAWK ESTIMATES (INITIAL ESTIMATES)
53 BCF per section @ 60 acres spacing

PETROHAWK REVISED ESTIMATES
69.33 @ 60 acre spacing

QUESTAR ESTIMATES
37.6 BCF @ 80 acre spacing

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 6, 2009 at 15:23

CHESAPEAKE ESTIMATES = 4.5 - 8.5 BCF per well (x) 8 (80 acre spacing)

PETROHAWK INITIAL ESTIMATES = 5.0 BCF per well (x) 10.6 (60 acre spacing)

PETROHAWK REVISED ESTIMATES = 6.0 BCF per well (x) 10.6 (60 acre spacing)

QUESTAR ESTIMATES - 4.7 BCF per well (x) 8

BARNETT COMPARISON - 2.5-3.0 BCF per well

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Permalink Reply by Geoff on January 6, 2009 at 16:51

Where did you get these reserve estimates?

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 6, 2009 at 17:07

CHK CEO Aubrey McClendon stated that their research indicates that the Haynesville Play contains recoverable gas reserves of 250 TCF from over 700 TCF of gas in play. That's 250 trillion cubic feet. They firmly believe it is the biggest reservoir in the US and the fourth biggest in the world.
McClendon defined the core area of the Haynesville Play as approximately 3.5 million acres in LA and TX. They come to this figure based on analysis of 70 penetrations over the past two years. There is additional acreage outside of the core area that is considered less productive and is not counted in the 3.5 million acres.
This is old news that merits repeating, but CHK estimates that the Haynesville wells will recover between 4.5 and 8.5 Bcfe, and they use 6.5 Bcfe to calculate their estimated ultimate reserve (EUR). They consider 6.5 Bcfe a conservative number and referred to it as their "floor."

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 6, 2009 at 17:29

From Petrohawk Q3 2008 Earnings report:

And as Haynesville shale becomes a larger component of our production, we expect ROE to head even lower. Before turning to the call over to Mark Mize, our CFO to discuss our financial results, I will mention the latest Haynesville shale completion at 15.7 million cubic equivalents per day. This laid us well as in line with results from all of our previous wells, all of which went into production at rates over 15 million a day. Our confidence in ultimate recoveries is building and we are increasing our estimated EUR per well to 6.5 Bcfe, up from 5 Bcfe over our entire leasehold.
We're currently completing our fifth Haynesville well and expect to complete approximately 10 additional Haynesville wells before year end. During 2009, we'll operate an average of 12 rigs in North Louisiana and a couple of rigs over in East Texas, all drilling for Haynesville shale, Bossier shale and a few other targets.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 6, 2009 at 18:07

KB,

No koolaid stand set up here.

Just trying to filter the information. I went searching and this is what I found.

Especially after reading some of the information in the "decline curve" discussion, I got curious.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 6, 2009 at 18:07

I wish some of the other experts would weigh in with some information or opinions.

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on January 6, 2009 at 18:19

Scott, I will echo some of Parker's information.

Estimates of gas in place per section range from 150 to 225 Bcf (Goodrich, Chesapeake, Petrohawk & GMX). Reserves per section estimates are 45 to 55 Bcf (GMX, Petrohawk, etc).

Chesapeake's blob map of the core area covers 3.5 million acres. The map looks reasonable as much of it has been validated by successful wells located at the edges. So Chesapeake's 250 Tcf of reserves would seem to be "in the ballpark". Of course several years of production history and hundreds of additional wells are required to raise the comfort level. Some of us still recall the great Austin Chalk land rush in central Louisiana that went bust.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on January 6, 2009 at 18:34

Thanks Les

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