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Permalink Reply by adubu on September 13, 2013 at 6:23

Kevin-- Royalties decrease if no new well is drilled in your unit and due to natural decline curve as well ages and Nat Gas prices have not increased, Look at price and Volume produced each month on stubs compare to prior months  you will find the answer.  

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Permalink Reply by Kevin David Johnson on September 13, 2013 at 6:30

the price and volume data is in about 20 different lines, there is no summary.  I can do so, but I was hoping for an answer.  I think you did answer when you said that the Nat Gas Prices have NOT decreased.  I am surprised that the decline since February has been so dramatic.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on September 13, 2013 at 7:14

Kevin,

  Here is a good discussion from the past. Les B posted decline rates in this thread.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on September 13, 2013 at 7:19

Kevin,

  One of the best things about a Haynesville well is that such a high percentage of the EUR is recovered so quickly.  Petrohawk has stated in the past that 80% of the EUR is produced in the first 10 years.

  That's great when the initial checks roll in......not so great when the decline curve kicks in.

  

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Permalink Reply by jffree1 on September 13, 2013 at 8:07

If you want to post a well name or lease ID I can show you the production numbers so you can see the decline in volume.

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Permalink Reply by Bill R on September 13, 2013 at 12:00

Kevin - I also noted a significant reduction in our EXCO Royalties payout over the past two months... I did note that the payout price of NG was lower than prior months with a slight reduction in our production, however as you said the breakdown is on multiple lines with no summary line for all of the wells listed. Makes it really hard for us novices to follow or understand. Thanks to some people like adubu and jffree explaining some of it to us, we have a chance out here.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on September 13, 2013 at 15:53

Oops, I forgot to add the link.  Here it is: http://www.gohaynesvilleshale.com/forum/topics/percent-of-eur-per-year

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Permalink Reply by Kevin David Johnson on September 16, 2013 at 7:28

I prepared a spreadsheet to analyse each well for the past 3 months and I proved out the amount of variance related to price and the amount related to volume. I can send this spreadsheet to anyone else who has Exco royalties.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on September 16, 2013 at 8:31

Kevin-- did your analysis answer your question on why your checks had decrease primary due to decline in volume as I, parker, and jffree1 expected?

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Permalink Reply by Kevin David Johnson on September 17, 2013 at 6:41

yes it did.  Production is going down every month.  There is a bit of a negative price variation too.

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Permalink Reply by jkw3 on September 17, 2013 at 5:34

Kevin - Please call the EXCO Royalty Owners Hotline at 888-788-9449 and they can direct you to someone who will answer your question.  It would help if you had your owner number from your check stub.  Thanks.

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