Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 2, 2016 at 22:32

Robert,

I agree with you. I don't see any good coming from the lifting of the export ban. At least under the current conditions. I think that when there was talk about lifting the ban earlier last year that is what started the Saudis to start protecting their market share by producing as much as they can and putting the shalers out of business. On the other hand if things blow up in the Mid East then we will be able to export to the Europeans. 

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Permalink Reply by William C. Morrison on January 5, 2016 at 6:55

The author neglects the cost of transportation of the resource.  The US will never be a buyer of Brent Crude, Europe will soak it all up.  There is little production in Europe of oil, some yes, but not much.  So most of it comes out of the North Sea, Libya, Algeria and the Middle East, not the US, Mexico or Venezuela.  Japan sees to have a straw directed at North Slope oil in Alaska, though a good deal of it goes down to California.  And they are still pumping oil in and around Santa Barbara, CA as well as Los Angeles. 

I am sure it costs a great deal more to ship oil from the North Sea to the US than from lets say Venezuela.  Mexican oil comes into the US too.  And yes, oil does come out of Saudi Arabia but not Iran.

And oh, yes, Brent Crude always cost more than West Texas Intermediate oil.  So there is the added cost at the well head difference to deal with.

The US is still importing oil, it does not meet all the demands here by any means.  We are still a net importer, just not as much as in the recent past.

I am sure if the Saudi's and Iranians start shooting at each other directly, then things may realign and change.  Might make Russia rich again.

I read a month or so ago, that there are six oil refineries idle in Louisiana alone.   I am sure some of them can be tuned up to take our crude versus Brent Crude, or whatever else is around.  Those refineries were tied to oil fields that are now more or less depleted, but a few pipelines could fix that or even relocation of the refiners could be done.  Just depends on the economics of the time and place.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 5, 2016 at 8:37

Can you list those six idle refineries, William?  Or provide a link to an article.  That seems a surprising statistic.  It doesn't ring true to me.  Except for down time for repair and maintenance everything that I have read seemed to indicate that refineries were operating near capacity.

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Permalink Reply by William C. Morrison on January 5, 2016 at 9:53

I did a simple web search on closed Louisiana oil refineries and found a list of seven (7) refineries shut down, closed.  Some were for sale, some were in dismantlement, and one was in site clean up (with accompanying lawsuits).  I suspect they were all out of date, lost their source of raw product, were located poorly, or what have you.  It was not hard to find.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 5, 2016 at 10:19

When you used the term, "idled", it gave me the impression that you were referring to functional plants not operating due to crude supplies.  Any operable refinery would be running close to capacity considering the crack spread.  There is no shortage of crude and refineries are at the top of the list of industries benefiting from the depressed price.

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Permalink Reply by Steve P on January 5, 2016 at 10:51

While it may not pay near-term benefits, I think gaining the approval to export is important to the US and our oil producing regions and companies.  I agree with most of what Mr. Morrison says, but what do Libya, Algeria Venezuela and the Middle East have in common, and that is in sharp contrast to the US?  Risky long term political reliability.  Europe will not want to have to rely on Mr. Putin in the event supplies are closed off from the countries I list, which is something that the leaders of Europe must consider.  If they can get crude from the US, regardless of price, in the face of disrupted supplies from the Middle East, then that's good for them to know, and an opportunity for the US.  Whether the US will want to have crude shipped elsewhere when there might be a shortage is another issue.    But at least with this change in federal law, all of the options can be considered.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 5, 2016 at 11:03

I agree that the potential global political benefits of U.S. crude export could be significant in the future.  As will LNG.  Currently the Saudis are in a crude price war with Russia and that will make it tough for U.S exports to compete in Europe.  It's hard to tell how the global markets will evolve because it's simple to talk about crude as a generic product without taking into account whether is it sweet or sour, light or heavy.  U.S. Gulf Coast refiners have invested to retrofit plants to process more light shale oil but they were designed to primarily use heavier crudes from exporter such as Venezuela. That, in part, is why the U.S. continues to import crude.  Not only is U.S. shale oil light, it is not all oil.  Much of the liquids reported as oil, in some cases such as LA, is condensate (gaseous at depth, liquid at surface temp and pressure) and it's very light.

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