Novi Labs Newsletter  6/13/2025

In this week’s newsletter, we take a closer look at why Haynesville may still have plenty of life left. Despite an 11% dip in 2024 production, the basin holds over 14,000 undrilled Tier-1 and Tier-2 locations. Jorge Garzon breaks down how rising LNG demand and a shift toward capital discipline could unlock a new wave of drilling activity.3 days ago • Visible to anyone on or off LinkedIn

Half the Tier-1 rock is gone, but Haynesville still has more than 20 years of drilling runway remaining.

Since 2017, the Haynesville Basin steadily increased its daily natural gas production, driven by consistent drilling activity and infrastructure development. However, in 2024, production experienced an 11% decline to 14.6 Bcf/d, largely due to historically low natural gas prices leading to reduced drilling operations. Despite this setback, Haynesville is anticipated to rebound strongly in 2025, leveraging its proximity to expanding LNG export facilities and improving market conditions, potentially reaching 14% of total U.S. gas production.

What’s left in the tank?
▪️ Only ~4,000 Tier-1 and Tier-2 wells have been drilled to date, that means there is 53% of Tier-1 and 62% of Tier-2 inventory left; at the recent drilling cadence these quality inventory supports 20 years of development
▪️ Most Tier-1 and Tier-2 rock sits in Louisiana, with pockets in Panola, Angelina, and Nacogdoches Counties in Texas

From 2016 to 2020, 60–80% of new wells were placed in Tier-1 or Tier-2 rock. That number dropped fast. More recently, it's hovered between 30–40%, as operators moved into Tier-3 and Tier-4 rock, especially in Texas and the northern edge of the play in Louisiana.  This shift has been enabled by advances in drilling and completions. Operators are using longer laterals, refining frack designs, and optimizing proppant loading to make lower-quality rock more economic.

Despite the play’s long production history, a relatively robust inventory exists with a combined ~14,000 undrilled locations in the Haynesville and Bossier formations. At a steady pace of development, this basin could support drilling into the 2050s.

Also worth watching: in the southeast, there’s significant bypassed Bossier pay, likely to become increasingly relevant.

Compared to most oil plays, Haynesville inventory life is being stretched due to a slower pace of drilling.

Think Haynesville’s best rock is tapped out? Think again

Despite 2024’s 11% production dip, Haynesville still has 20+ years of Tier-1 & Tier-2 inventory left. With over 14,000 undrilled locations and LNG-driven demand ahead, the basin is poised for a strong rebound in 2025.