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Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on December 16, 2010 at 19:54

Wow, Les, Thanks!

Okay, I looked at these, and what got me really excited was pg 2, a PHK plot of Phi-H for the Bossier Shale.  Looks to me like they place the western edge of T12N-R8W in RR Parish on the edge of the highest Phi-H contour, 20.  That is, I presume, likely to be serious Bossier Shale core?  I do understand that you don't have gas until it is flowing down the pipeline, but this looks like the most serious attempt to delineate the Bossier Shale to date, and that it places the Bossier core as extending reasonably far east.  Encana may of course not decide to drill there for several years, but doesn't this indicate reasonable liklihood of great gas content and reasonable rock properties?  Looked to me like PHK actually based this on more wells than typically seen; I don't know if there is also seismic that goes into something like this, or if it is purely a wild lasso thrown around the well data points.  Anyway, if anyone else is interested, the map and other info is also available in a 12-7-10 presentation by PHK, see:

http://www.petrohawk.com/presentations.php, right click on "Capital One Southcoast Energy Conference" and download the pdf (I didn't include full link because the pdf tends to kill a browser if you open it in a browser; maybe just my older win/xp machine).

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 17, 2010 at 3:52

Robert, I take all these maps with a bit of caution.  It is possible that Petrohawk's Bossier Shale map is too optimistic in the same manner their Haynesville Shale map is too pessimistic.  Essentially all operators are mapping off the same set of well data (plus some seismic) and the task is more challenging in some areas due to the limited number of well penetrations with good log data.

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Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on December 17, 2010 at 6:51

Yes, I understand your caution, and also suspect that the comments by Jack et al. are spot-on too; the small guys are trying to attract investors, the big guys don't have to give anything away, and all of them don't want to do anything that makes it harder to lease something they would like to get their hands on.  I was just figuring things might be firming up a little bit as they do have a large number of verticals through the Bossier to get to the Haynesville; that doesn't mean that all operators took corings (though I would sure as heck be taking a representative sample myself). 

 

What is the deal on sharing this sort of data among operators?  Do they in fact, within already solidified leasehold (ie., places they are no longer in competition to lease acreage), typically have data-sharing agreements?  There was a comment you made in the latest discussion on searching for the mythical pool of oil 3 mi down, our El Dorado, about the seismic activity being a CCG Veritas shoot (not looking 3 mi down) "for industry" I believe - ie., this is a multi-funded shoot with the data shared?

 

Final questions - I presume all the blue numbers are actual Phi-H readings based on well cores, even though they only identify about 9 wells on the plot?  There are a lot of "readings" across De Soto and running out over the thumb, but in Red River Parish, I agree things are still a little thin on data.  But do you think that Phi-H is one of the better measures for gauging potential, as it also captures rock flow properties?

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Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 17, 2010 at 7:06

Robert, several operators partcipate in sharing groups that exchange well logs and other data.  Plus they are joint owners in many units and some older well logs are public data.  Well logs from the recent wells are the primary data used in mapping.  Full cores are not that prevalent and are not that critical in mapping once you have a few from the initial development wells.

 

The CCG Veritas seismic survey was likely funded by multiple partcipants who would receive the results when available.

 

The Phi-H (porosity times net pay thickness) is only about gas in place and does not provide rock flow properties directly.  It may give some indirect indication if other factors remain constant.  The Phi-H values would be based on well logs primarily.     

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Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on December 17, 2010 at 9:35

So if you were betting your $9MM on where to punch a well, what kind of data would you most like to see?  I am sort of coming to the conclusion that the best thing to do is not even predict, but obviously these companies have to.  The best data would no doubt be fabulous production in all 8 surrounding sections; that is something you don't generally have more than about 1/9th of the time, I would think...  I saw PHK charts of Phi-H as well as well as PhiGH-H, might be the same thing for all that I know.  I also saw them produce a chart with data from multiple sources - digital LAS, paper TIFF, and all sorts of cores (conventional, rotary wireline, sidewall) as well as cuttings (I presume this last is just what comes out of the hole?).  Any comments on the various technologies, or does it require purchasing textbooks?

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 17, 2010 at 9:51

If any member could use a sleep aid, I suggest Elements of Petroleum Geology, Second Edition, by Selley.  I'm fast asleep within 4 pages.  LOL!

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Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on December 17, 2010 at 9:57

Thanks Skip,

I could show you some really solid sleep aids in the realms of theoretical chemistry, physics, and the math applied thereto... ;-)  So, are there any texts that happen to have been written, perhaps accidentally, in an enlightening and engaging fashion?  You know, the sort that produces a ripe crop of rabid petroleum engineers and geologists?

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 17, 2010 at 10:10

I haven't found any that fit that description that I can recommend.  I set the curve in Geology 101 but that's as far as I got.  And it was a long time ago.  LOL!  A far more interesting read is the State of Louisiana Mineral Code and Forms, 2009 edition available from Claitor's Publishing.  It's a real page turner.  LOL!  If anyone would care to read a very entertaining book on the industry, really, I strongly recommend The Last Boom by James A. Clark and Michael T. Halbouty.  Dad Joiner, Doc Lloyd, Daisy Bradford, The Big Fish, H. L. Hunt, Texas Ranger Lone Wolf Gonzaullas and a cast of characters (real people) that are unsurpassed by fiction.  The Black Giant still ranks right up there with the biggest oil fields every discovered in the onshore U. S.  And it was a big factor in winning WWII.

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Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on December 17, 2010 at 10:26

Thanks for the "fun read" suggestion; I am sure the industry is peppered with all sorts of big characters ;-)  As for the mineral code, I did wade into a bit of that online, and was reminded of why I hire a good lawyer for some things ;-)

Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on December 17, 2010 at 10:23

Hi GoshDarn,

I agree with all your points; I absolutely understand that the information flow is managed with an eye to affect on profit, and that the drillers are acting primarily in the interest of the drillers :-)  I am partly curious (occupational hazzard), partly trying to make the best guesses possible with the available data, be it negative or positive (seems to go in different directions a lot).  I figure, or at least hope, that it all becomes a useful discussion for folks that are also trying to guess what the heck is likely to happen, but the unfortunate truth is we have no way to assign error bars to a whole raft of critical guesses about where the gas is, how it will come out, at what price, when, etc.  I do find it a sort of fascinating area, as a hard scientist / computer guy; there are a raft of human factors and the profit motive that really add to the guessing game.  It is not as bad as long-range weather forecasting, but there are some similarities ;-)

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Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on December 17, 2010 at 10:42

Roger, it is now on my list of future purchases :-)

Permalink Reply by Les Bamburg on December 17, 2010 at 11:55

GD, I have a copy on my bookshelf at home (and The Prize of course).

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