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Permalink Reply by William Arnold on January 10, 2024 at 2:03

Things are so volatile in this industry. There are so many factors that can impact price. Barring some black swan event, what do you think will be the price range for natural gas the next five years?

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Permalink Reply by Les on January 10, 2024 at 4:14

Given all the variables and uncertainties, IMO one could make an argument for $2 or $10 gas.  Wish I knew. Given the thesis of the above article of higher LNG exports, one would think simply greater demand would result in slowly increasing prices. Not yet. And then today's WSJ article that the Northeast U.S. can't get enough gas one would think these are all bullish developments. 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 10, 2024 at 4:34

Thanks, guys.  My interest in some feedback is based upon the boom and bust nature of natural gas.  Since so many of the early gas focused companies were sub majors and piled on the debt to establish their leasehold,  supply didn't exactly respond to the level of demand.  The result, up and down price swings through the first thirteen or fourteen years of the Haynesville Shale Play. 

We are in a lull in LNG export capacity with some major projects a year or so from coming online.  The export capacity will go up significantly but when the time comes, will the demand be there?  Since US LNG's main market is Europe, I keep an eye on those demand signals.  While we are in a lull, Europe is full speed ahead to adopt renewable energy sources and the become more energy efficient across broad portions of the EU's economy. 

It is a cautionary turn of events that Europe has cancelled some regasification plants and new storage.  So, what happens to our Haynesville gas prices if the industry creates excess export capacity while demand is falling in Europe?  US LNG is at a disadvantage when competing in other markets such as Asia where other major LNG exporting countries have lower costs than we do.

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