Our family has been under lease with several companies but most recently Weatherly which declared bankruptcy.  Just recently we have been approached by another company to lease the property.  What are the going rates?

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There are always plenty of those who wish to project/model future prices.  Although the NG futures price is a basis for paper trades, not physical gas sales, it is somewhat of a barometer of market trends/expectations for prices in future months.  As of today the first monthly futures price above $3.00 is for February 2030.  It's $3.005.  That's too far in the future to put much store in the price but I don't think there will be a substantive price improvement for several years.  At this point I'd be happy for a meaningful improvement by fall/end of 2020 but I'm not betting on it.  And I tell my clients that.

Thanks, BZ, for sharing your thoughts. I always like the input of varying points of view. Weirdly, after I typed in my earlier posts on the Ashland leasing, I crossed paths with a guy who works for JJ's Dallas Cowboys. Too bad he wasn't employed by Comstock or Covey Park. Darn.

Excerpt from a proprietary analytics report I receive.  Nothing encouraging but the fact that storage is ~9% greater than when the winter season began really serves to illustrate the state of over supply.

Meanwhile, we are reducing our 2020 Henry Hub bid-week natural gas price forecast to $2.20/MMBtu ($2.10/MMBtu Q1, $2.00/MMBtu Q2, $2.20/MMBtu Q3 and $2.50/MMBtu Q4) from $2.50/MMBtu with the warmer-than-normal start to winter significantly weighing on prices. Domestic natural gas storage is currently 2,947 Bcf, which is ~23% higher than a year ago and ~9.0% above the 5-year average (compared with roughly in-line with the 5-year average at the start of winter). However, we are maintaining our long-term (2021 and beyond) Henry Hub bid-week natural gas price forecast of ~$2.50/MMBtu as we believe that reduced drilling due to this year's projected low natural gas prices will result in a decline in domestic natural gas production in 2021, which should help re-balance the market.


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