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Permalink Reply by Jesse Joyner on January 26, 2020 at 14:09

Thanks, BZ, for sharing your thoughts. I always like the input of varying points of view. Weirdly, after I typed in my earlier posts on the Ashland leasing, I crossed paths with a guy who works for JJ's Dallas Cowboys. Too bad he wasn't employed by Comstock or Covey Park. Darn.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 27, 2020 at 2:46

Excerpt from a proprietary analytics report I receive.  Nothing encouraging but the fact that storage is ~9% greater than when the winter season began really serves to illustrate the state of over supply.

Meanwhile, we are reducing our 2020 Henry Hub bid-week natural gas price forecast to $2.20/MMBtu ($2.10/MMBtu Q1, $2.00/MMBtu Q2, $2.20/MMBtu Q3 and $2.50/MMBtu Q4) from $2.50/MMBtu with the warmer-than-normal start to winter significantly weighing on prices. Domestic natural gas storage is currently 2,947 Bcf, which is ~23% higher than a year ago and ~9.0% above the 5-year average (compared with roughly in-line with the 5-year average at the start of winter). However, we are maintaining our long-term (2021 and beyond) Henry Hub bid-week natural gas price forecast of ~$2.50/MMBtu as we believe that reduced drilling due to this year's projected low natural gas prices will result in a decline in domestic natural gas production in 2021, which should help re-balance the market.

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