Natural gas prices are surging on Friday shortly after the regular session opening and Thursday’s dramatic technical reversal as traders shrugged off yesterday’s bearish government storage report, choosing instead to focus on the rapid pace of falling production. Falling spot prices and the emergence of milder weather patterns may be limiting gains.

At 13:01 GMT, June natural gas futures are trading $1.895, up $0.050 or +2.71%.

According to Natural Gas Intelligence (NGI), with the relaxing of coronavirus-related shutdowns and stay-at-home orders not yet know, the supply side of the equation is starting to come into focus.

Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co. (TPH) analysts said the last two days of flow data showed total U.S. gas production down around 1.5 Bcf/d, “which could indicate the first signs of a break in U.S. gas supply.”

U.S. Energy Information Administration Weekly Storage Report

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported Thursday that domestic supplies of natural gas rose by 73 billion cubic feet for the week-ended April 10. That was generally in line with average expectations for an increase of 71 billion cubic feet, according to a survey of analysts.

Total stocks now stand at 2.097 trillion cubic feet, up 876 billion cubic feet from a year ago, and 370 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said.

NGI said a Bloomberg survey showed projections ranging from 42 Bcf to 78 Bcf, with a median build of 67 Bcf. A Dow Jones poll showed estimates as low as 39 Bcf and produced an average 58 Bcf injection. NGI’s model pegged the build at 57 Bcf.

Last year, the EIA recorded a 73 Bcf build for the similar week, and the five-year average is a build of 27 Bcf.

Short-Term Weather Outlook

According to NatGasWeather for April 17 – April 23, “Cool shots will continue across the central and northern US into early next week with chilly lows of 20s and 30s. Texas and the South will warm back into the 70s and 80s into the foreseeable future, locally a touch hot into the 90s. The West will be mostly comfortable with highs of 50s to 80s for light demand. Warmer than normal conditions will build across all but the northeastern US mid-next week with national demand easing to lighter levels.”

Short-Term Outlook

Oil prices are down again with nearby futures under $18. This suggests further loss in US oil rigs for this afternoons Baker-Hughes rigs report. It will be watched very closely as it already has dropped a huge amount of oil rigs the past 3-4 weeks, declining more than 30%. This means less associated gas production. However, traders are asking themselves, when is this going to happen? It still hasn’t shown up in the data, given the two straight solidly bearish EIA storage reports.

Today’s bullish price action suggests traders are already starting to price in the production cuts.