Natural-gas prices add to gains after supply data -- Two weeks in roll--maybe new trend--:)

Natural-gas prices add to gains after supply data                                 (                                     NGV13                                 )                               

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas futures added to gains on Thursday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a supply climb of 46 billion cubic feet for the week ended Sept. 13. Analysts polled by Platts forecast a climb of between 55 billion cubic feet and 59 billion cubic feet. Total stocks now stand at 3.299 trillion cubic feet, down 187 billion cubic feet from the year-ago level and 18 billion cubic feet above the five-year average, the government said. October natural gas     (ngv13)   was at $3.78 per million British thermal units, up 7 cents, or 1.8%. It was trading higher at $3.76 before the data.

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Also in general September is low each year in Nat Gas prices-- so this is postive and maybe will see prices in low to mid $4 range all of 2014 as long as we gets some cold weather this winter

Adubu

Right now, the macro-economic picture is going to play a bigger role in pricing than storage/weather. Cold weather would help, but for 2014 to stay above $4, we need more demand.

Does winter even have much effect on prices anymore?

PG-- Yes Cold Weather increases demand without question. The only time storage decreases is in winter

the gas market today for the upcoming winter reflects price expectations of a more or less normal winter.

in those winters where it gets very cold, very early, i.e. the second half of Nov, the NY/NE and/or the Chicago customers will have to pull hard on their market zone storage. & if that happens, typically, everyone will freak-out and their citygate prices and even field prices will make quite a move for remaining Nov dailies, the Dec contract, the Jan contract and possibly as far out as Feb & Mar. so, at this point in time the market is now assuming that the early cold weather is a harbinger for the rest of the winter. 

markets are supposed to be rational. i can't speak for other markets but the gas market always, always over reacts and sometimes it even reacts incorrectly. hurricanes, for instance; get a storm in the gulf and prices will spike. however, the typical GOM one will result in more demand destruction from power line outage and where lines aren't down, reduced ac load because of two to three days of cloudy skies. this will more than offset the temporary shut-in of production. the market never seems to remember that it's the unusual storm that damages/destroys much offshore infrastructure.

i hope the preceding doesn't sound like a lecture. i'm new to the board, prices are something i've been around and being "the new boy roy", i want to try to contribute.

Thanks for sharing your experienced opinion with us.

i've just re-read that which i wrote a couple of hours ago. in the next to last line of  the second paragraph, please imagine the "this" to be "that". i was examining/discussing a hypothetical, not what may or may not occur this winter.

i apologize for not having properly proof-read my earlier submission.

Jim-- if hurricain had come in gulf this summer ( but did not) would have had much less effect on supplies and prices as compared to 3years or > since supply from gulf much less % since on shore shale gas is major source now both dry and wet gas fields has replaced off shore---welcome to GHS site look forward to you comments on any subjects discussed here and share your knowledge

i totally agree; with both your last post and all of your previous ones in this thread. 

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