Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 10, 2012 at 20:28

Bobi,  I just saw this article from Fuel FIx. They are usually very good.  This article is about the record high prices overseas investors are paying for US shale (25k in EagleFord & 15k in Penn)  The article wonders if overseas demand will continue or if these prices are sustainable. A very good read. I'd like to hear other's ideas from this article too.

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http://fuelfix.com/blog/2012/01/09/shale-bubble-inflates-on-near-re...

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 11, 2012 at 5:32

Bobi,

I think the current price reflects the light winter weather that we've seen so far. If that changes before spring then the price should bottom pretty soon. Where my guess would be $2.50 to $2.65. If the winter stays lite then I have no idea where it might go. Hopefully, not below $2.50.

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Permalink Reply by tc on January 11, 2012 at 6:21

If the winter stays warm couldn't storage completely fill up by late summer and has that ever happen before?  If storage is full won't the NG price for many Haynesville leaseholders be zero as their wells are shut-in.  I do believe that Haynesville would bear the brunt of this pain as producers shut-in dry gas wells first.  Also between 1994-1999 NG price was above $3 for only 5 months and was under $2 for 25 months

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on January 11, 2012 at 7:53

despite the cold winter last year we hit record levels in storage. Storage is not being drawn down hardly at all so far. I think it wil take more than a cold winter to help.

 

 

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Permalink Reply by The_Baron on January 11, 2012 at 6:23

$2.13 by march

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Permalink Reply by P.G. on January 11, 2012 at 6:44

I wonder when royalty owners will start getting bills rather than checks in the mail?

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Permalink Reply by Jenny James on January 23, 2012 at 6:32

What is the source where you found these break even prices?  This is very interesting, thank you!

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Permalink Reply by MARG on January 11, 2012 at 8:17

Bobi, I suggest that you go online and purchase a finger pulse oximeter as  we are in for a long disgusting, disappointing time.  It is disgusting because we should and could be utilizing NG.  Our state agencies and departments  will also probably notice that the funding has vanished.  This has a dominoe effect!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 11, 2012 at 8:36

Still dropping today.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 11, 2012 at 8:37

Well at least we not the ones who bought the PetroHawk and the leases from Cheasapeak this year.  Wonder if those "investment" firms are squirming? 

WHY is this happening? 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 11, 2012 at 8:58

BHP Billiton didn't borrow money to acquire Petrohawk, they are fine.  And the global energy majors will continue to buy up unconventional reserves as fire sale prices.  They all have long term management/investment horizons.  The companies in trouble are the mid-major and major independents such as Petrohawk that were aggressive with borrowed capital and got in trouble due to the drop in nat gas prices.  There are a number of companies desperately trying to rebalance their production mix to something close to 50/50.  It's not the buyers who are in trouble, it's those having to sell.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 11, 2012 at 9:05

Thank you.  I don't have to sell.  My land was there and will be there.  The pad and pits might stay.

And the 2200 foot road is kind of nice to have in some ways.  So figure will just keep watching this site and learning and wait it out.

The minerals are there as they have always been.  So, someday.

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