Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by essay on January 16, 2012 at 11:51

i agree with clyde it's probably going below $2, i don't think $1.50-$1.75 is out of the question, and we'll be lucky to see $3 by the end of the year.  might not see that till 2013.

Permalink Reply by ken hatcher on January 20, 2012 at 8:36

At $1.50 to $2.00 gas which of the highly leveraged company's will be the first to blink?

Permalink Reply by essay on January 23, 2012 at 9:43

chk just answered your question lol

Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 20, 2012 at 9:33

Check out today's CNBC show Street Signs - Boone Pickens says it "could' go under $2 - and a stock analyst really slammed CHK for being "over leveraged", too much in debt.  Check out the segment on their website.

However, amateur that I am, remember the 80-20 Rule of Life ... when 80% of people believe something is true then chances are it's false.  I think we are near a bottom simply because the news is so negative.

2nd However ... what may be bad for the companies and for mineral owners could be good for the overall economy and the long term use of nat gas. It's so cheap that manufactures are beginning to reopen plants in the US because electricity costs are low - because of natgas.

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Permalink Reply by P.G. on January 21, 2012 at 5:37

What's sad is I know folks who are keeping their thermostats turned down because they can't afford their gas bills....

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 23, 2012 at 8:58

Our carriers are going to the Strait right now..that is going to blow straight up unless Iran backs down.  If the oil supply is hampered then we have to drill here...Hate that this is happening ...but afraid it is. 

But it will stop the fall in the price of NG.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 23, 2012 at 9:01

Loss of oil supply in the Middle East will have no impact on domestic NG prices.

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Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on January 23, 2012 at 9:36

Unfortunately the NG from Qatar would be closed in - AND without firing a single shot, More importantly/fortunately, the Iranian NG would be closed in also - ain't no storage and Iran would lose most of their current customers which would probably boost the NG price world wide and promote more shale gas development in Iran's customer countries or neighbors - China's Shale Gas will probably become Japan's best cheapest supplier... Oregon's LNG will be too expensive.

Tom 

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 23, 2012 at 10:23

Maybe not  but the price has gone from 2.33 this morning to 2.61 as of closing of exchange.

Its all perception..

but the report out that the "supply" is 50% or more less then first announced might have had a factor in price increase.  I predicting $3 by end of week.

But this I just a kranky old woman 

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Permalink Reply by Clyde T. Williams on January 23, 2012 at 9:06

Yeah one report is NG went to 2.57 - up 7+%

BUT remember - if Iran closed the straits - they would have to shut in 9M bpd of production x $80 = $720M pd day drop - they have 60M population, 30+% unemployment and virtually NO HC PRODUCT refining capacity - <14d diesel supply - Yeah my old bosses in Dubai/AbuDhabi would be hurting BUT no as much as in Iran...Kind of Hope they go for it...no need to waste cruise missile on them.  Tom

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 23, 2012 at 10:24

Going  to be an interesting week...however it plays out.

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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on January 23, 2012 at 10:57

My uneducated hunch is that Iran is making noises to drive the price of oil & gas UP like they did in 2008.  Iran made a fortune in 2008 with just some vague threats.  It's the easiest way for them to get more money into Iran - rattle the swords and watch the price of oil go up. 

.

Will it work this time?  I don't think Iran has any intention of going to war - they cannot afford it and they fear their own people's revolt.  However, it would be a very bad idea to attack Iran - it would unify their people, drive the price of oil way up and probably result in another stalemate.

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