June 17, 2011

PrintSend to a FriendTweet this AnalysisAnalysis by: Hans Linhardt
Analysis of: AGA principles urge responsible US gas resource development
Published at: www.ogj.com
Summary
AGA (American Gas Association) recommends responsible development of all US gas resources, in particular safe exploration, transportation and delivery of affordable NG to all customers.

Analysis
With plenty of NG at hand all kind of scenarios surface to push for CNG cars and also supporting e-cars (electric cars). However, as maybe efficiency claims do not differ much -when drilling down t o all details - the real issue is infrastructure and safety. There is no question that community CNG bus fleets reduce emissions and are efficient from an operation and maintenance point of view, but this fact can not be translated to personal CNG car trials. Conversion of gasoline cars to CNG is expensive and home charging stations are certainly unsafe. And more important, there is no sufficient infrastructure to support the CNG personal cars with supply and maintenance. As far as the large US truck fleet is concerned, LNG is the most economical answer, but handicapped by a large conversion investment and again the lack of a national LNG supply infrastructure. Therefore, the automotive companies have concluded electric cars are the answer with a well establish - and easy to be expanded - electric infrastructure. The only fly in the ointment is the EPA, throwing new unrealistic mercury restrictions on the largest power sources, coal fired power plants. What choices do the power companies have right now? Of course not nuclear - needing a breathing spell and regrouping - but the only choice is natural gas combined cycle power plants. Of course, those plants can all be built in the US and do not need any import from outside the US, a boost to the labor market and the economy. However, we have to realize that if all cars change to electric drive, the power costs will go up for everyone. Therefore, we have to move diligently to balance our natural gas and related infrastructure needs with the well established and very efficient gasoline supplies from our own refineries and their upstream operations. Oppressive legislation has to get out of the way for all options, being gasoline, natural gas and or electric supply. In summary US plenty natural gas supplies can revive the economy provided government bureaucrats stay out of the way.


Buck

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You need electric to recharge the electrical car which in turn will use NG to produce the electric. Use the LNG for 18 wheeler fleet. Win-Win I agree government bureacrats stay out of the way.

This "analysis" discards the use of CNG for personal cars without proper "analysis".  Consider the following before "jumping" to that conclusion:  1) the US spends hundreds of billions each year on the military (bases and wars) to insure the supply of middle east oil that would not be required if the US were energy independent, 2) electric cars lose effeciency within several years because their batteries, like all batteries, wear out (life expectancy is less than ten years and significantly reduced efficiency in 5 to 7 years) - and a consumer reports study of electric cars concluded that they couldn't be justified, 3) the 300+ billion sent out of the country annually for imported oil used for gasoline/diesel would be retaining and circulated in the US economy, 4) there are millions of CNG cars in use now in Europe, Asia, and South America and expanding, 5) LNG and CNG filling stations are already being built (see www.cngprices.com) and expanding weekly, 6) the price of natural gas could double and the "pump" price of CNG would still be lower than gasoline, 7) Electric cars powered by NG power plants is ineffecient as 50% of the initial power generated is lost in transmission lines, and 8) while the cost of converting gas cars to CNG is expensive, buying a new CNG the next time you buy a car wouldn't be any more expensive if they are mass produced and the US would get all the benefits listed above.

 

Accelerating the conversion of transportation to NG would only take a few targeted, TEMPORARY, tax credits and the benefits would be enormous.  These should include CNG/LNG stations, initial additional manufacturing expense for vehicles to keep initial pricing competitive, and some for dealerships.  Should phase out tax breaks in 5 years.  Savings to the government coupled with increased tax revenue would be in the 100s of billions and increase in US jobs would be in the millions within 5 years....  

I agree.  I think the assumption that it is "expensive" to convert cars to NG is way overstated.  I converted a gasoline powered generator to propane for less than $300.  Compared to the possible savings, the cost to convert a vehicle would be well worth it.  With competition,  the price for conversion would go down quickly, and the cost for the network for refilling would also drop with competition.  With the energy losses in transmission, use of NG by vehicles is also environmentally superior to electric cars.  Unless there is a huge breakthrough in battery technology, electric cars just don't make that much sense.
The problem with using our abundant supplies of natural gas creatively to make this country energy independent is it just makes common sense....and common sense is a commodity that those holding leadership positions who could coordinate all this apparently have little of....or perhaps maybe the National Gas industry isn't paying them as well as the anti-natural gas industry folks.....

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