US Natural Gas Production Decline Continues (3/29/13)

Total US natural gas production declined for the second month in a row which is likely the direct result of the past decrease in gas rig count. This could also be effected by the typical cold weather impacts on production facilties and bottlenecks in midstream infrastructure so the next few months will clarify the trend.

January's production was down by 0.7 Bcfd (0.8%) to 72.1 Bcfd from December's rate primarily due to decreases in Louisiana <0.3 Bcfd>, Wyoming <0.2 Bcfd> and New Mexico <0.2 Bcfd>.

Total US production was down 0.6 Bcfd (0.8%) on a year-to-year basis. Contributors to the decrease included Louisiana <1.6 Bcfd> (-18.5%), Wyoming <0.9 Bcfd> (-13.8%), GOM <0.6 Bcfd> (-11.9%) and New Mexico <0.4 Bcfd> (-10.6%). Only Other States which includes the Marcellus Shale had a significant increase in production versus January 2012 (+2.9 Bcfd, +13.6%).

I have attached a set of charts that depict the historical production trends.

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Les B:  If you had to pinpoint the reason for the natural gas production decline... how would you rate the top reasons.  Fewer wells... high decline rates... producers choking back flow or shut-ins... or maybe something else?  i kind of figure all of the above... but what is the primary reason why we see lower production.  and... if you have any insights on The Haynesville... East Texas counties adjacent to Caddo and DeSoto  thanks, jhh

 

JHH, three primary reasons:

1) Lower overall rig count meaning less wells being drilled

2) Shift from dry gas drilling to oil/wet gas drilling since those type wells produce less natural gas per well

3) Delays in completion/production from new wells waiting on infastructure (gas plants, gas pipelines, oil pipelines, etc)

 

Unfortunately, no insights into the Haynesville.

 

Les B... that's OK.  i take everything in... listen to all that's said and try and read as much as i can.  Hopefully... one day... it will all make sense.

Northern East Texas Haynesville outlook not good.  GMXR with acreage in Harrison county just went BK and Goodrich which for years listed their Beckville/Minden (Rusk/Panola) fields as Haynesville acreage now calls the acreage Cotton Valley (Taylor Sand).  The Haynesville is now shrinking, of course $10 NG would change all that.

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