Haynesville natural gas market will shift amid price volatility, Enverus says

April 16, 2025 worldoil.com

Enverus Intelligence^® Research (EIR) is releasing a series of reports focused on its Haynesville growth forecast including natural gas production, operational efficiencies and Henry Hub basis fluctuations amid high price volatility.

According to EIR, the high volatility in natural gas prices expected at East Texas hubs served by Haynesville production is driven by timing mismatches related to gas supply, pipeline development and LNG export demand. Over the next decade, the Haynesville is anticipated to experience underutilized pipeline capacity, according to EIR reports.

“Operator guidance and a minimal increase in drilling activity in the Haynesville has driven a downgrade for our 2025 and 2026 production outlook,” said Alex Ljubojevic, director at EIR.

Jason Feit, an adviser at EIR added, “Gas producers and consumers should expect volatile prices at key trading hubs in Texas over the next few years as new pipelines come onstream and alter supply-demand dynamics. Prices at the Katy and Carthage trading points should stabilize in 2028 and beyond but expect a bumpy ride until then.”

“There could be as much as 6 Bcf/d of underutilized pipeline capacity over the next decade in the Haynesville. Legacy pipelines and those lacking LNG access face the most challenges,” Feit said.

Key takeaways from the report:

• EIR has downgraded its Haynesville production forecast in 2025 and 2026. Lack of activity pick-up and operator guidance indicating a slower production ramp drove the downgrade.
• Longer laterals have kept total drilled but uncompleted (DUC) footage in line despite lower DUC counts.
• EIR is bearish relative to the current forward curve for Katy and Carthage gas prices in 2026-27. It expects abnormally high volatility during this period.
• New pipelines targeting the growing Gulf Coast LNG export are forecast to add 3.5 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity by the end of this year. Another 1.7 Bcf/d of capacity is expected by 2027.
• Underutilized Haynesville pipeline capacity will exist over the next decade, according to our estimates. Legacy pipelines and those lacking LNG access face the most risk.