Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by P.G. on May 27, 2010 at 6:11

I wonder what effect this moratorium will have on prices at the pump?

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Permalink Reply by Parkdota on May 27, 2010 at 6:56

Well, I would assume it's gotta have some effect. I believe I read the U.S. gets 12%+/- of it's natgas/oil from the GOM. So, if they shut permits down for 6 months plus the month it's already been down, add several plus months for new permits and drill time (assuming permits are back on go in 6 mn), include existing GOM well declines, and we could be talking an estimated 10-15% drop or more in injections via the math. I'm obviously not an expert but the math would suggest this moratorium could have an effect. I certainly would take an exra 10-15% on royalties, and I know the operators would love an extra 10-15%.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 27, 2010 at 7:49

That's one way to look at it. Here's another. A decrease in the availability of domestic crude, however temporary, helps bring the energy debate back around to the potential of natural gas. Though the only way to make up for that temporary loss of crude is to buy replacement barrels from non-domestic sources, the replacement of the natural gas production lost is not so much of a problem considering current on-shore production and storage levels. Whatever the increase in the cost to the consumer as a direct effect of a 6 month moratorium on GOM permits, it is inconsequential in the long view compared to the environmental disaster on the coast, those communities that derive their reason for existence from the marsh/gulf and the individuals whose lives and culture will be negatively impacted. For generations. All compelling reasons to shift as much crude consumption as practical to natural gas.

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Permalink Reply by Parkdota on May 27, 2010 at 9:49

Something else to note....

"The Atlantic hurricane season will likely be a busy one that may spawn as many as 23 named tropical storms, including up to seven major hurricanes, the U.S. government said Thursday."

This might also curtail injections from the existing wells.

http://www.wapt.com/weather/23694422/detail.html

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Permalink Reply by Jack Blake on May 27, 2010 at 11:15

Mclendon (SP), T-Boone and their posse need to take advantage of this and if Berry Obama has any sense at all he will jump on the ng bandwagon!
Natural Gas as America's primary fuel source.
GAS IN GREEN - GAS BURNS CLEAN WAS THE RALLYING CRY OF THE DAY

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Permalink Reply by P.G. on May 28, 2010 at 2:35

All compelling reasons to shift as much crude consumption as practical to natural gas.

Yes or at least until some unforeseen devastating accident, such as say the contamination of a huge aquifer or worse, happens.
What could be just as bad (for HS mineral owners at least) would be getting the Federal Government involved in micro managing our NG operations because of the possibility of such an accident.

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Permalink Reply by Pipeliner on May 29, 2010 at 5:53

Energy industry somber about new offshore limits..

Driller says Obama's suspension could affect more than 30,000 jobs.

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7027713.html

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Permalink Reply by sesport on May 29, 2010 at 6:19

Hopefully those employees can be cross-trained, at the company's expense, to do clean-up & remediation. I'm sure BP could start an affiliate with a mission/goals to do such and reap the benefits, money-wise. And then nobody would sweat ther livlihood. Don'tcha think.

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Permalink Reply by Pipeliner on May 29, 2010 at 10:15

Jay,

Photo Op:

Parish official says BP shipped in workers for president's visit:


"Early Friday morning, "a number of buses brought in approximately 300 to 400 workers that had been recruited all week," Jefferson Parish Councilman Chris Roberts told CNN's.
Roberts said the workers were offered $12 an hour to come out to the scene at Grand Isle and work in what he called a "dog and pony show."
But, when Obama departed, so did the workers, he said, adding that he's never seen more than 20 workers at the Grand Isle cleanup site since the effort started. "

http://www.digitaljournal.com/article/292663

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Permalink Reply by sesport on May 29, 2010 at 13:57

Jay - If this situation personally impacts you, I feel for ya. I don't know whether you were here in Shrevesville during the 80's, but I was and I recognize that it's no picnic to be in such circumstances. Hope it works out for you.

I would still hope that BP could minimize the impact on their employees by finding creative ways to keep them employeed. The toll this is taking is now past painful, maybe past excruciating.

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Permalink Reply by CypressKnees on February 28, 2011 at 23:37

Bravo! Go NG!

Critical Thinking is thing of beauty. Thank you, Mr. Peel.

 

OT:

BP's lawyer, Mr. Feinberg, says lots (100k) of the Spill disaster Claims don't have any supporting documentation, so Bp won't pay.

 

And..the "green" initiatives in Congress are being reversed: styrofoam cups are back!

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Permalink Reply by Parkdota on May 29, 2010 at 8:17

Now there are potential shipping lane issues. Also, here is a photo and example of GOM oil/natgas activity. The article attached says we get roughly 24% of our oil from the GOM and 15% of our natgas which is more than I had though/posted above. At roughly 2% per month for oil and 1.25% natgas with regards to supply, if there is a 6 month stoppage in permits with an added one month already passed and several months+ for new permits/drilling set up and activity you could be talking roughly a full year of lag time for new injections which is assuming the ban is lifted. This could theorectically mean a full one year loss or price increase for these sectors, holding all else constant, meaning oil could hit $100 and natgas $5 not taking in to account decline rates of existing wells and the coming of fall/winter which typically entails higher prices. Also, via the article pipeliner posted, if the rigs leave the GOM for new jobs they might not be back any time soon which would exacerbate the supply issue.

http://www.bestgrowthstock.com/stock-market-news/2010/04/30/oil-sli...

Attachments:

• Gulf_Coast_Platforms.jpg, 168 KB

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