Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 9, 2008 at 8:02

Jay. I started the decline curve discussion quite a while back. The responses by those whom I perceived to be knowledgeable convinced me that the HS decline would be steeper due to formation pressure. Since then I have been on the lookout for HS decline data. Are you saying that the HS "high pressure gradient" should cause the decline curve to fall less steeply than my posted figures or that the HS should have a curve less steep than the Barnett?

Permalink Reply by Grillin' - MmmMmm on December 9, 2008 at 8:10

Jay, the higher pressure will also allow more compaction of the fracs as the well's pressure declines, hence the projected higher decline rate in the early years. But that assumes the wells are flowing to an unconstrained system. If they are severely choked back due to pipeline capacity restraints, then the decline rate will be artificially slowed down until such time as the pipeline capacity opens up and the wells are opened up.

And again, all of this is with very little actual data so we may see something different. But hypothetically, this seems supported by reservoir engineering. The Barnett decline rates were modified over time as we got additional information/data.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 9, 2008 at 4:08

Yep, I can. Ground zero for the HS play in NW. LA. is the Martin Field in Red River Parish.

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on December 9, 2008 at 5:09

In addition to Petrohawk, Exco resources and Comstock Resources have both made well announcements today. I have been told by a reliable source that with a proper frac and large enough pipeline capacity, most of the wells should be capable of producing 20+ million a day on an IP basis. The problem is that all these large IP rates can be and probably are a two edged sword.......unless we start burning it in our cars and trucks, all this additional gas is going to result in lower and lower natural gas prices which may help us in our homes, but certainly won't help our royalty checks!

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on December 9, 2008 at 5:19

I'm calling the Thorn Lake Field in south Caddo,north Red River parishes GROUND ZERO for the Haynesville Shale.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 9, 2008 at 5:27

SB. My mention of HS ground zero is based on the first HA well drilled by Encana. See my blog post for the specifics if you are interested. Haynesville also has it posted on the Main Page under "History". Certainly south Caddo, DeSoto and north Red River comprise the "core area" of the Play.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 9, 2008 at 5:21

SB. You are right on with the supply/demand equation. I doubt that any HS operator wishes to shut-in any production. They can not fund development and shareholders and the market frown on capex expended for non-producing wells. The question then follows, is pipeline construction/capacity capable of handling all this new production? We should know the answer to that question in the first or second quarter of '09.

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Permalink Reply by Bacon on December 9, 2008 at 6:00

I gotta believe that one of the first things Obama's going to do is launch a comprehensive energy policy. His "New Deal" suggestions would seem to jibe with Boones ideas for the wind corridor somewhat in the sense of creating immediate jobs AND providing a long term benefit. NG use and deregulation of delivery should be a part of it. Keep our fingers crossed.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 9, 2008 at 6:09

B. I think much of the political objection to T. Boone's plan was aimed at the wind portion. While research into wind technology should be included in any New Deal type energy programs, I think we should disconnect it from natural gas as the technology exists for immediate benefit from ng as a vehicle fuel. As is oft said, ng is the energy bridge to get us to the next tech level.

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Permalink Reply by Grillin' - MmmMmm on December 9, 2008 at 8:13

It will be the second thing. First thing he's going to do is pardon all of his contributors, political allies, etc in Chicago/Illinois gov't! Joking! Gotta love that governor though...dropping the F bomb like that!!!! He'll be joining Dollar Bill William Jefferson from N.O.!!

We can only hope he'll start with energy policy. He just needs to remember not to include anyone who knows anything about the oil and gas biz. That's what got Cheney's task force in trouble. Too many oil bidness guys who know too much about the bidness to be on that task force, ya know!

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Permalink Reply by Bacon on December 9, 2008 at 7:52

Wow, the PR wires are going nuts with those announcements. So 28.8 is the biggest in the HS announced so far? I thought I heard rumor of bigger but official?

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