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Permalink Reply by RGV AG on May 16, 2014 at 5:35

Whatever might happen will  be a long way off.  Not all of the details about the reforms have been hammered out and cleared up yet, so any big investment which would allow development is still a long, long way off. 

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Permalink Reply by RGV AG on May 16, 2014 at 8:29

Mr. Weyland:

That is about right.  I am in the sweatshop business, not the oil business but I grew up in Mexico and have spent about 35 years of my life either working, working and living, or living there, so I have a pretty good idea of what this is going to be like.

Most major American service companies are down there in force already, with big Mexican subsidiaries; BJ Services, Halliburton, Weatherford, etc, so it is not new to them.  But active participation will be.  I know the Weatherford office up near the Valley got wiped out by the drug bunch a few years ago, several people disappeared and all their vehicles gone.  Never heard from them again. 

Some areas of Mexico are really dangerous, but others are not bad at all.  The big bugaboo is going to be the area across from the EFS in Coahila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas.  The Burgos field down there is really, really big and there have been some serious issues there.  PEMEX is having a ton of O&G stolen from it on a yearly basis, so there will likely be a concerted effort to straighten that out before big time foreign investment gets into play. 

I love Mexico, if I were rich it is where I would live, but I will never work there again and I am extremely skeptical of the ruling oligarchs there being able to fix things.  I believe the genie is out of the bottle and it will not be put back in terms of the crime situation with the gangs down there in a lot of areas.  There is just too much money in it and too many people in government are way involved in it. 

One of the other things that is going to work against the development down in Mexico is some of the fiscal reforms that were passed late last year.  It used to be that many things, such as O&G industry equipment which ain't cheap, could be imported temporarily without paying duties or a 16% VAT tax.  The ever wise Mexican government then passed a law saying no more temporary imports, everything pays the 16% VAT tax, and if the importing entity exports then it can be credited back that amount against exports.  Well that just made most equipment and other things 16% more expensive and a helluva lot more difficult to manage.  As always Mexico is it's own worst enemy. 

Ike Craig 91'

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on May 16, 2014 at 8:42

ike,

to me, the neat thing about this board is the amazing sorts of folks posting here; some went to school, others educated themselves and others bring amazing amounts of real life experience(s) or combinations of the foregoing.

and, imo, your bona fides vis-a-vis mexico will be welcome here.

jim

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Permalink Reply by 1kw6x71km1v37 on May 16, 2014 at 9:32

Following 911, there reportably was a sizable contingency of Al Qaeda in the vicinity of Mexcio City. Don't know what happened next with that, but, again, reportably, the organization has co-operated with the drug cartels and moved hundreds of Al Qaeda fighters across the Mexican/US border. These people may be used a.k.a. Putin-style to incite riots this fall as it becomes apparent the Democrats will lose the Senate in the 2014 mid term elections. Obama will declare marshall law, under with there can be no elections held. So there he will be, King of Amerika until further notice. Sharia notice.

Jim Weyland, this may not be exactly what you had  in mind, but you must admit, it could be a very interesting fall of the year ahead.

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Permalink Reply by RGV AG on May 16, 2014 at 17:25

I don't know fellas, probably one of the shortest books in the history of the world that will never be written would be titled "The Mexican support for Muslims".  If there are two cultures that are about as opposite as can be, it is the Latin culture and Muslim/Arab/Persian cultures.  Years ago, before the border got good and screwed up, more on that in a bit, their was an unwritten rule that the "Polleros" (illegal alien traffickers) did not cross OTM's, well really OTL (other than Latins) due to all the grief that accompanied the exotic illegals.

Equally, for years it was controlled and forbidden, especially after 9/11, for the smuggling groups to cross Arabs or Orientals, the last thing any Cartel or Crime Boss wanted was extreme pressure on his organization.  All it would take would be one terrorist to basically cause a huge problem for a whole very profitable industry.  That rule was readily enforced on the Mexican side, in a much more effective way than the CBP could ever enforce it. 

The militarization of the borders and The Failed War on Drugs has caused a slew more problems than it has helped.  Back when the border was "open", things were a lot tighter and controlled, now it is just haywire with helicopters, thousands of Homeland Security and CBP officers.  It is nuts.  The difficulty in crossing the border, back and forth, has been a boon for the crime groups, they can now charge thousands of dollars to poor people looking to help their families and due to the difficulty many of those people now stay in the US instead of going back and forth, thus creating a whole new underclass in the US.  Years ago it basically cost nothing to swim the river and take your shot.  Instead prohibition and difficulty has created a huge industry that is blood thirsty and vile, exploiting the most basic of human desires, for the most part, to improve one's lot in life and care for one's family. 

Think about it this, what would you do if you were born to a 16 year old mother in Honduras and had nothing in life?  Me? I would try like hell to get to the US faster than a cheetah with a hotfoot to improve myself, law or no laws in the real world it is survival of the fittest. 

The problem is not the illegal aliens, it is the welfare and entitlement system that exists in the US.  What better incentive is there than that to come and abuse the system?  My stance, from living and working back and forth over the border for a real long time, is that the US needs more fluid and open borders with no welfare system to create an incentive for non-productive people to either come to or stay in the US.

I am very opinionated about this topic because I have both Mexican citizenship, my dad's side of the family is Mexican, and after leaving Mexico City we moved to the border where I made my life, and will likely return, for many years.  Before I write a thesis, I will just say this, the border and immigration was a lot better in my opinion before it walled off and an ineffectual attempt to control it was made.  Not one of the people that flew those airplanes was Mexican or Latin, and not one of them set foot on Mexican soil prior to that horrible event.  My opinions may not be popular with most, but I believe them real and functional and based on reality not misplaced blame.  

I mean the Spanish and the Latin culture has been fighting the muslims for years, they even name cities after the historical saga's.  "Matamoros" across from Brownsville is translated into "Kill the Moors".   I would just like to make the point that no Latin American's have sponsored any terrorist attacks on the US, and most of you that have traveled in Latin America know that the gringo is fairly popular, hell Latin America even plays baseball.  "American's", as in the Hemisphere, have a hell of a lot more in common with each other than the radical muslim killers that permeate the middle east and some parts of Asia.

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Permalink Reply by 1kw6x71km1v37 on May 17, 2014 at 4:19

Points well taken.

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