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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 31, 2014 at 11:45

The NYMEX monthly contract natural gas settlement price is $3.189 for January.  Most HA operators have costs in the $2.50 to $3.00 range in their Core and Tier One rock.  Although the margins are thin you would have to look at each company's hedge position to get an idea of their potential Rate Of Return.  There will be opportunities to drive down their well and completion costs in 2015.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on January 1, 2015 at 13:15

I think you see no drilling of alternate wells for time until drilling cost drop 30% or more then large operators like XTO will drill some wells but not fac until prices back close to $4 plus thus take saving in drilling cost. Like getting extra BCF of gas

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 1, 2015 at 13:25

Alternate unit wells are exactly the ones that get drilled in low price environments because they have the lowest cost to produce an mcf.  Drilling wells but delaying completions is a strategy to reduce over all well cost however waiting for $4 gas is unlikely.  What operators do is build a backlog of wells Waiting On Completion and then offer them as a package deal for pressure pumping companies to bid on.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on January 1, 2015 at 14:26

Or do you means having Fac completion companies bid on completion which lowers their cost per MCF even more

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Permalink Reply by adubu on January 1, 2015 at 14:25

Since unit is HBP they will wait until drilling cost drop --correct
Then lots of option on completion, etc
Skip explain the "pressure pumping company bids"
Are you saying they sell the assets ie wells and acreage of unit?

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 1, 2015 at 14:32

Operators will drill their best rock.  It's all HBP.  And all the infrastructure is in place and paid for.  It's where their production costs are lowest.  Pressure pumping is industry speak for frac crews.  By delaying completion of drilled wells a company creates increased competition among pressure pumping companies for a multiple well completion contract. 

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Permalink Reply by adubu on January 1, 2015 at 15:14

Skip-- HAPPY NEW YEAR

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Permalink Reply by adubu on January 1, 2015 at 15:11

That makes sense -- so decrease cost of drilling then time the bid completion cost plus what ever the price of gas is calculated to equal best profit will dictate rig activity. Actual the drop in crude prices helps dry gas due to rigs lay down with resulting drop in drilling cost for HS dry gas since not depended on crude prices

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 1, 2015 at 16:41

Happy New Year, adubu.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 2, 2015 at 17:17

Mike, as you know, production cost vary by rock quality.  At the prices you mention no company would be drilling Haynesville rock.  Since Nov. 1 LA HA operators have averaged permitting a well a day along with quite a few alternate unit well applications added to the Commissioner's public hearing schedule indicating more wells to come in the near future.  With Comstock returning to the play this week there are 15 rigs running, most drilling extended lateral cross unit wells.  I'm sure they would all appreciate $5 NG but they are obviously willing to invest in their HA wells at current prices.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 5, 2015 at 2:43

It looks like the market is responding to the weather. Friday's close was 3.00. Today we have already hit a high of 3.17. Would expect the price to go as high as 3.35 today. Anyone have any other predictions?

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Permalink Reply by tc on January 5, 2015 at 3:32

I think we hover around this price.  From this morning weather channel.

The brutal cold is not expected to last too terribly long. Temperatures will begin to moderate somewhat by the weekend throughout much of the Midwest and East, but temperatures may remain below average as a third shot of cold temperatures may impact the Great Lakes and Northeast next weekend.

Due to higher NG production, so far this winter normal cold weather only causes small storage withdraws.  Until we see several months of declining or at least flat NG production, prices are stuck in the mud.

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