Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 20, 2016 at 13:10

Some times Seeking Alpha fails to seek rational analysis.  Other times they are very rational.  Probably just a momentary lapse of reason.

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Permalink Reply by Kevin Dentzer on May 24, 2016 at 7:32

The Sage of Wall Street has predicted this over and over and over again for over 30 years.  The fact is that you may see a spike but it will be short lived because like oil if the price is there and the production is not regulated as by an OPEC type of organization, everyone will want their share and a bit of everyone else’s and a glut is born (again).

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Permalink Reply by Keith Mauck (Site Publisher) on May 27, 2016 at 4:15

Do we know how the capital markets will respond..is there going to be the easy money available to ramp up quickly? That seems to be the $$$ question for pricing to me.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 27, 2016 at 4:31

There seems to be a lot of equity companies looking for opportunities to invest in energy companies with quality underlying assets.  They have bemoaned the fact that far too many companies have been able to hold out for far too long owing to lenient lenders and management willing to delute stock.  The prevalence of "pre-packaged" bankruptcies supports just how willing lenders have been to creat soft landings for E&P companies.  Equity firms have been disappointed that there have been few chances to pick up first class assets at bargain basement values.  IMO the capital markets will reward the energy companies that hold superior reserves and reasonable long term debt obligations.  When the commodity prices meet the IRR requirements, there will be plenty of money to restart drilling programs for the better positioned companies. 

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on May 29, 2016 at 1:28

Hope you are right Skip. The lack of equity participation has concerned me. I have been afraid that could be a problem in the future. Again, I hope you are right.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 29, 2016 at 1:34

I performed some research and provided some analysis to one of those equity companies last week.  They are considering acquiring stock in a Haynesville Shale operator.

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Permalink Reply by Franks on May 30, 2016 at 3:33

Shale Bailout (Engineered Hike)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QGmCjbju8Y0

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on May 30, 2016 at 5:30

Franks, Is he saying that the fires in Canada and the revolutions in Nigeria and Venezuela were started to protect the banks? This guy is full of it or himself. 

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Permalink Reply by Franks on May 31, 2016 at 4:13

Rob Kirby also has an interesting take on all of this; same syrup, propping up bank reserves.  
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=afUuQe1HoU4

Permalink Reply by Franks on June 5, 2016 at 11:50

“Charles Tenner worked for Goldman Sachs and has since become one of the world's leading researchers of market cycles! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cavudDouMHk

Permalink Reply by Michael Lowe on May 24, 2016 at 10:52

Jay is correct---pass the smoke!

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Permalink Reply by jscottrx on May 24, 2016 at 14:35

- The Beginning of The Shale Revolution's course "began", "ran", and now can it be The End of The Beginning? It "can".

- In the top-rated book about The Shale Revolution, to be written, of course, not for another 50-100 years, the beginning of the revolution ends in Chapter 11. lmao.

- Now for Chapter 12 and beyond.

- "...the energy team there believes that Nymex prices should be at least $3.50-$4.00 in the long run...". IMHO I (wishfully lol) think more like $7.00 avg.

MHO is influenced by the following for the near-term :

          -  The price decline of natural gas was primarily a "moving in tandem" with the price of crude oil whose fate for who knew how long then was decided in Nov 2014 immediately after OPEC met and agreed to NOT attempt to shore up an already sub-$100 and declining price with production cuts in crude oil yes, but not also natural gas as it is not also within the domain of OPEC.

          - The level and degree of "capitulation" in Jan 2016 in which everything and anything was being blamed on the non-stop plunge in the price of crude oil, including the plunging stock market to erectile dysfunction. lmao.

          - The track record of, following the winter-spring end of wicked "El Nino's", "La Nina's" that are quickly and firmly in place by summer, as is the case Jun 2016.

MHO is influenced by the following for the longer-term :

          - At some point, and for whatever reason, what if controls on frac'ing are introduced?

          - Hello interested parties? Why not explore the idea of supply control?

          - Hello Northeast? Pipeline infrastructure expansion? NO! click. lol.

          - For whatever reason (a fair price AND with a smile?) LNG exports from the U.S.A. become really popular globally?

          - What if the "global warming due to the burning of gasoline/diesel" issue "heats up to a boiling point" globally lol much quicker than anticipated?

          - What will be the source of the surely massive demand for electricity if all-electric motor vehicles become the norm much quicker than anticipated?

Stay tuned!

{ `_`} .

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