Attached is a set of graphs showing historical gas production for the Shreveport District and several key parishes. The curves reflect reported data thru March 2009. Although this information is not exclusively Haynesville Shale production, clearly the increases since early 2008 are a result of the HS.
The Shreveport District now represents 55% of Louisiana's total onshore production and has increased 20% year-over-year. Some parishes have also had spectacular increases in the last 12 months.
Bossier - 21%
Caddo - 48%
DeSoto - 43%
Red River - 626% (not a typo)
Les - Looks like historically (with the exception of '05) there is a down trend between July untill about Oct., but this year it looks like it's in an "up" trend. Is that expected to continue or dip again as we get closer to the end of this 3rd quarter? For it to start going down again would mean those "bargain basement" prices again. Yuuuuucccckkkk!
Sesport, generally prices decline in the 3rd Qtr as we approach the end of the gas storage fill season. Many people believe we are going to hit full storage even earlier than normal which will translate into a decrease in natural gas prices. Also, LNG shipments into the US are likely to pick up in late August or early September.
GoshDarn - It's best to prepare for worst-case scenario in all matters ... there will always be some kind of rough seas in the future. No guarantees that there will be smooth sailing 100% of the time.