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Permalink Reply by Jody Hill on June 24, 2010 at 9:23

Someone sent me the link to this article which paints a picture of a potentially apocalyptic disaster that sounds a bit like the "cratering" you reference, except with explosive methane thrown in for good measure. I am not a scientist or geologist, so this scared the you-know-what out of me to think it possible. I live in Florida.

http://www.helium.com/items/1864136-how-the-ultimate-bp-gulf-disast...

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Permalink Reply by Aubrey C. Sanders, Jr. on June 25, 2010 at 3:40

Truly a grim picture painted by this article. Over my head. If I believed something like this would happen I think I MIGHT cancel my upcoming trip to La. and go to Alaska instead. But I might get mauled by a bear as one geologist did yesterday.

Thanks for posting this, Jody.

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Permalink Reply by Jody Hill on June 25, 2010 at 4:06

Well, the author of the article is not a scientist of any kind, and he seems to make vague references to those in the know. Fear-mongering is one way to get ratings on a talk show. I know a lot of people in the industry. I think I'll ask the folks from M-Frac what they think. They're the leading experts on hydraulic fracturing software, so I'll bet they have some opinions based on science and actual industry knowledge. It they concur, it might be time to invest in that little getaway in the north east!

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Permalink Reply by Aubrey C. Sanders, Jr. on June 25, 2010 at 4:25

Jody,

I listen to talk radio quite often. Nothing gets my dander up like someone presenting "facts" which I KNOW are wrong. Of course you can never get through on the phone to challenge them.

I don't think it is time to run. Think I will keep my plans to go to Gulf coast in about a week.

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Permalink Reply by Aubrey C. Sanders, Jr. on June 20, 2010 at 9:33

Mac,

Your 2nd scenario is more nearly like what might cause cratering. In a later posting I will try to elaborate.

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Permalink Reply by Mac Davis on June 20, 2010 at 12:45

I think the big concern in the BP blowout would be the "oil flowing outside the pipe, making a larger hole" scenario. That would make it that much harder to stop the blowout, and could increase the flow rate.

As long as it doesn't open up new holes for the oil to leak from, who cares if a square mile section of the sea floor drops down a few hundred feet when all is done?

It looks to me like all the oil is currently flowing through the pipe, not around it. I guess if they did somehow manage to stick a cork into the drill pipe at the top, it could squirt the casing out of the bore, but isn't that exactly what the BOP is intended to do if it works right?

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Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on June 20, 2010 at 14:25

What if this is the mother of all wells that have ever been drilled? You can bet that the structure at the base seal has been eroded from the 61 days of extreme pressure escaping through the hole.

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Permalink Reply by Aubrey C. Sanders, Jr. on June 21, 2010 at 5:08

The concern that the ocean floor might drop is not a matter of concern. The fissures which would develop from such movement should be of major concern. I have been deeply involved with fissure development in Arizona which resulted from excessive pumping of groundwater. These fissures extend for many miles and rapidly grow in width and depth when surface water flows into them. An awesome site, especially when one develops under your house or across your airport runway, etc.

I have not seen sufficently detailed photos to be able to determing if all flow is in pipe flow. Also, we do not know the toll of abrasion inside tubing and/or casing. No, the BOP is not present to secure casing. Cement is what holds that in place and directs flow into well bore.

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on June 22, 2010 at 18:11

Aubrey,

I'm glad there are people like you, who don't follow the advice to just give it up since it probably won't be noticed.

Even if your idea doesn't solve this problem, maybe it will help with another one or influence someone else's idea.

I also appreciate your attitude that you have things to learn even from those who have no expertise in your field.

I WISH THE WORLD WAS FULL OF PEOPLE MORE LIKE YOU!

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Permalink Reply by Aubrey C. Sanders, Jr. on June 23, 2010 at 5:18

Thank you for your kind words and thoughts.

As you know, I do not believe that someone who is not involved in oil business cannot help in some way to tame the MONSTER.

My ideas that I have in a large part come from the melding of various aspects of life experiences. Early in life, having grown up in what most would refer to as backwoods, I learned to improvise. I could not go to hardware store to get something I might need to repair my bike. Haywire was a godsend. And the hardware store was a long 8 miles away via gravel roads.

I was fortunate to work each summer when I was in college for International Paper Co. That was a huge learning experience for me. Having grown up in the oil field I hung around a lot of drilling rigs. Then I worked in geophysical industry for 5 years. And worked for 30 years as an engineering and sedimentation geologist. Each experience has contributed to my ideas.

I think it is great when anyone contributes an idea. And, yes, I have seen some far out ideas proposed. But, even those have stimulated my thinking. We all have so much to learn!!!!!!!!!!

From our conversations it sounds like your son has a very scientific mind. Great!

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Permalink Reply by Bobi Carr ("parker") on June 23, 2010 at 5:40

Aubrey,

He’s a smart kiddo, but I’m most proud of his kindness and respectfulness. I rate those two traits higher than smarts, and of course, they are not mutually exclusive. I strive for him to have all three.

One of my favorite quote is:

“I have never met a man so ignorant that I could not learn something from him.” Galileo Galilei

I hope he retains that attitude throughout life.

Aubrey, keep plugging away, you never know what influence one of your ideas might have on someone else.

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Permalink Reply by Aubrey C. Sanders, Jr. on June 23, 2010 at 8:43

All are very important traits. He is indeed blessed, in my opinion. And I am sure he has many more good qualities. Seems to me he has been "well raised"

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