Anyone local to the Avoyelles area hearing anything about the Eagles Ranch Well? It appears that they recently finished drilling well and should be moving frac crews on location soon.

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So Rock Man, what do you think about this well at this point? What do these production stats tell us about this area as opposed to it's competition in shale plays and the Texas Chalk areas?

I have a bunch of questions that I hope these future wells answer.

Obviously, can they drill these wells cheap enough to make it profitable and at what wellhead price? What is the advantage (if any) of being in Central Louisiana as opposed to other non conventional plays? 

How much will artificial lift help the situation with the decline rate? What type of artificial lift system would be the most effective and efficient way to go?

And many more!

A better price at the wellhead is required for sure.

A better price at the well head takes a long time to come together. The Permian is still trying to solve the pipeline problem and they have been building like crazy for about 4 years and that was only after the play proved itself. My opinion is this thing is just going to have to follow the natural coarse of proving a play. That only takes place when we se e price stability across the board.

I would think our Central Louisiana wellhead price wouldn't be discounted as much as plays with shipping bottlenecks.

What one would be keen to remember is that many companies in shale plays didn't even make a profit with $100 bbl oil. Many companies in shale areas are still loaded with debt, that coupled with higher interest rates and low oil prices could really affect getting the Louisiana AC off the ground.

So we'll have to see how this plays out.

Lots of questions - and way too early to make any sweeping comments about the Hz AC frac play in this part of Louisiana.

Remember that the EOG wells is the FIRST well in this play in Louisiana. The fact that it has made over 120,000 BO with 120 MMCF from a short lateral drilled toe down that was out of its target zone for part of the lateral length is VERY positive in my opinion.

This well does not compare to the Karnes Co sweet spot wells - but what are the odds that it would?

As this play progresses with more drilling and more science and more tweaking of frac stimulation approach, certain areas will prove to be better than other areas.  Is there an area that is equivalent to the Karnes County area? Who knows? Variability in subsurface conditions and geology will impact results - which will range from gas with condensate & NGL's to volatile oil to black oil play areas.

There are a lot of wells / units planned - we will be in a lot better shape to ID good versus bad areas and what a "normal" well will be like after another 12-18 months of activity.

All I can point to are analog plays like the Eagle Ford, Permian Basin, Haynesville, etc - it takes a lot of time and $$$ to figure out where best areas are (if any) and how to drill and complete these wells.

Or will the La Hz Frac play be like the Cline Shale or Pearsall Shale?

Only time and lots of effort by operators will figure that out!

And $3 gas and $50 oil will not help the situation one bit.

After 3 months of gentle declines, a step downward.

I am thinking this 20% decline from previous month is tied to well loading up due to pressure drop and negatively impacting production.

Or this was an issue that caused the well to be shut in for an extended period of time for that month (I.e. several days). 

I anticipate us seeing indications in November and December that indicate that this well has been put on some sort of artificial lift mechanism to help overcome low pressure and increase production.

Careful using Sonris for production data as it is not always accurate.  Note the last month the well was listed as being in Caddo Parish.



09/01/2018 052025 1 470 2728 2523 2879 319 AVOYELLES
08/01/2018 052025 1 277 3413 3355 3220 470 AVOYELLES
07/01/2018 052025 1 332 3612 3490 3667 277 AVOYELLES
06/01/2018 052025 1 612 3783 3569 4063 332 AVOYELLES
05/01/2018 052025 1 350 4792 4760 4530 612 AVOYELLES
04/01/2018 052025 1 477 5291 4906 5418 350 AVOYELLES
03/01/2018 052025 1 488 6374 5741 6385 477 AVOYELLES
02/01/2018 052025 1 548 7382 6916 7442 488 AVOYELLES
01/01/2018 052025 1 177 8801 8334 8430 548 AVOYELLES
12/01/2017 052025 1 378 11171 10765 11372 177 AVOYELLES
11/01/2017 052025 1 622 14192 15394 14436 378 AVOYELLES
10/01/2017 052025 1 453 27609 29029 27440 622 AVOYELLES
09/01/2017 052025 1 0 26896 24024 26443 453 AVOYELLES

Assuming well was not shut in for whatever reason for "x" number of days, a marked increase in decline rate from Aug to Sept. Indicative of continuing pressure drop over time.

126,094 barrels in 13 months toward a well cost of $12M.

True - still a very good "show well". But the trickle of cash flow (about $100,000 per month post royalty cash flow minus operating expenses) isn't going to cut it.

Recent drop in oil prices will have an impact to drilling timing in this play IMO. Increase in gas prices will help support drilling to some extent but key point in play is liquids (condensate and NGL's). 


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