Working gas in storage was 3,071 Bcf as of Friday, December 20, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 177 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 591 Bcf less than last year at this time and 313 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,384 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 242 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 115 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 37 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,111 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 41 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 33 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 21 Bcf. At 3,071 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range.
I counter predict - week covered by this weeks report is going to be colder than the week previous. I think we will see withdrawal in excess of 200 BCF and will drop below the 5 year average. One of the principle drivers of this will continue to be gas going "off line" due to freeze ups in the the Bakken and Marcellus. Also, the climate prediction center is calling for colder than normal weather in the first half of January. I'd say its bullish for gas.
One possible flaw in your 200 BCF prediction is the holiday. A lot of commercial and industrial users were closed during Christmas and New Years. If it had been a normal work week, I would be more inclined to support your prediction.