EIA officials stand by natural gas predictions
For instance, Congress could drive demand for natural gas by encouraging utilities to retire coal-fired power plants and creating new tax incentives for alternative vehicles that run on the fuel.
Proposed environmental laws putting a price on carbon dioxide emissions and other “regulatory changes could increase the use of natural gas in the electric power sector,” said Howard Gruenspecht, acting administrator of the government’s Energy Information Administration.
But senators at an Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing on the issue Tuesday signaled they are still skeptical that tremendous natural gas supplies in the U.S. can and will be commercially recoverable at today’s relatively low prices.
“There are many reasons to be optimistic,” said Sen. Jeff Bingaman, D-N.M. “But recent history suggests we should be cautious as well.”
Bingaman noted that the U.S. has already been through several boom-and-bust cycles with natural gas, including in the early 2000s, when once-rosy predictions about supply were replaced by concerns the U.S. would not have enough natural gas. That fear inspired investments in terminals for importing liquefied natural gas that now are operating at low capacity, Bingaman said.
With a turnaround in domestic supply, Houston-based Cheniere Energy Partners LP now is modifying one such LNG terminal in southwestern Louisiana so it can export the product.
Manufacturers that depend on natural gas not just as a power source — but also as a building block for the products they make — warned that that big swings in prices could jeopardize their bottom line.
Dow Chemical Co. Vice President George Biltz told the energy committee that the projected abundance of natural gas “can fuel a renaissance in American manufacturing,” but only if prices remain stable and the federal government encourages domestic production. Biltz implored Congress to “avoid legislating natural gas demand,” lest those policies lead to “massive natural gas price spikes.”
“This is at least the third time that I’ve been told we have an abundance of natural gas that will solve all of our problems. so we would be very concerned about assuming that natural gas is s a silver bullet,” Biltz added.
Energy experts from the EIA and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology said they were still grappling with the potential effects of any global market for natural gas — and the prospect that U.S. producers could export the product.
“If an international gas market develops globally — and that’s a big if — what we find is that has substantial impact on the United States, lower prices, but also the potential for substantial imports in 20 to 30 years,” said Ernest Moniz, who helped develop a study released last month that is bullish about natural gas supplies.
Bingaman said he was concerned that in a global marketplace, natural gas could be “subject to the same kind of volatility and price shocks that we’ve seen in the world market for oil.”
Biltz echoed those fears. “We support free trade,” the Dow executive said. But it would be better, he argued, for the U.S. to export products made with natural gas than the fuel itself.
The MIT and EIA energy experts both stood by their predictions about expanding shale gas resources in the U.S., and criticized a June 26 New York Times article that warned the estimates may be overly optimistic.
Gruenspecht said that e-mails that were released by the newspaper in conjunction with the report were heavily redacted “in ways that provide misleading information about their context.”
“I believe EIA is doing a solid job of effectively tracking the emergency of shale gas in the U.S. energy system and thoughtfully reflecting that in our projections,” Gruenspecht said. “We’re very comfortable with where we are. We’ve seen nothing in the New York Times report that would cause us to change our view.”
The MIT’s Moniz also defended the calculations and stressed that his report used data from sources other than the EIA, including the university researchers’ own well-by-well analysis.
The growth in government estimates about technically recoverable natural gas is driven by technical advancements in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing techniques that are being used to extract the energy source from dense shale formations nationwide.
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Buck
Views: 78
Replies to This Discussion
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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on -
The NY Times article has been a disaster. Even if 99% of it's facts are incorrect, millions more will believe the NYT before they will believe Aubrey and Haliburton or even the EIA.
CNBC's Mad Money man Crammer told Aubrey that he needed to take the NYT seriously since they are so widely read and respected. Has the Times run anything balancing this recent article?
Has anyone seen an article or know of a website that responds to the NYT article point by point?
I respect the NYT, but this article made some pretty big accusations that very few people in a position to know seem to believe. It's almost like a new conspiracy theory if you believe the NYT. Still, it will be quoted over and over again. Time will tell who is right, but I think it's more likely that the NG industry is closer to being correct about how much gas there is and how much it costs to get out.
I'd like to see a website where the article is responded to point by point. Aubrey sent out a great personal email, but it needs to be polished and on a website with links to data about supply and costs.
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Permalink Reply by jffree1 on
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The NYT Sunday Review offered a piece last weekend, by Arthur S. Brisbane, Public Editor, which was critical of the shale gas article for it's lack of balance, among other things :
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/07/17/opinion/sunday/17pubed.html?_r=2
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Permalink Reply by Katie McCullin on -
Hi!
I don't know of a point-by-point rebuttal of the article, but Chesapeake's CEO responded quickly with an email to employees which was later posted to the Facebook page. It's very detailed and I think will give you the information you're looking to gain.
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Permalink Reply by LP on
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There seems to be a massive covert effort to destroy the expanded use of natural gas. Not to point fingers or make specific accusations without evidence but…..
What industries are the most threatened by natural gas as their competitor and stands to lose the most?
Foreign oil?
Coal?
Buying negative articles by the media (especially NYT) is the easiest method of spreading manure.
Buying environmental voices is another easy ploy. They make noise and the general public takes the scam as scientific evidence. Politicians stay clueless and step on whatever side of a line they think will keep them in office.
While an email to employees is informative to the employees; that is a classic example of preaching to the choir and does little good to convert the masses into believers.
Could use a few more Billy Graham Pickens !!
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LP, I signed on with the Pickens Plan and his forthrightness just tickles me but Boone Pickens is also preaching to the Choir, at the moment. But, between the two of them (Boone Pickens and Aubrey Mc), they are starting to move the needle (of public opinion) and that is why there is a more concerted effort to scare the public about gas and, hey, if you can't kill the message (gas is good for the country) then go after the messenger (independents like CHK) and make them look evil and greedy.
There are several groups behind the attack, I believe, and that would be enviros and competing energy sources, as you said, but don't forget that the industrial end users have been vocal against a) creating more demand for NG as a transportation fuel and b) exporting because both might increase the price of gas and thereby affect their bottom lines. They seem to forget that if they "kill the goose" when independents can't afford to extract any more shale gas because it's just too darn cheap, then supply will become scarce less plentiful, once again, and their price will go up anyhow.
Unfortunately, I don't think we are going to see an energy bill... anytime soon... maybe not until after the next election. Congress is shaping up to stay in gridlock until then... but I digress.
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Permalink Reply by LP on
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I agree with you, Jffree. And as Boone says, "if we don't use what we have we will be looked back on as the dumbest people on the planet." Elbowing out the Independents isn't going to keep prices down though. It will force the Independents to sell out to the likes of Billiton and other foreign owned companies and the same thing that happened to American agriculture will happen to American Natural Gas. International companies own our agriculture. (Like ADM)
As soon as the next election is over, those same politicians will be focused on the next election, repeating the cycle of non-functional government. I don't know what the answer is. We seem to be hell bent on self destruction.
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Permalink Reply by robert minton on
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As relates to the New York Times, I quote a bumper sticker: "too bad IGNORANCE isn't painful".
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Permalink Reply by essay on
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coal and gas are like oil and water, dogs and cats, or lefty environmentalists and any hydrocarbon. if NG had a nemesis embodied by any one lobby coal is probably it.
2012 will be a major indicator whether or not there are enough people left in this country who can think for themselves despite being inundated with propaganda 24/7. if not, this ends very badly, and might well end that way no matter what we do at this point. i try to be optimistic but these idiots can't even come up with a budget.
after all is said and done i think sanity will prevail and natty g will win big especially in states like louisiasna, but it will be a long painful road. i also think there will be a lot of shale left undrilled in other areas of the country, stranded by state and local politics. which ultimately can only help me get richer faster by increasing demand for my gas, just like all of the moronic wind mills, solar panels, and nuclear hysteria mongers.
thanks, NIMBY greenie weenies. owe ya one, but don't call me, i'll call you. ciao.
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