Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Rock Man on January 30, 2021 at 8:12

Thanks for this update.

The following is an ultra high level comment, but considering an average IP flow rate of 20-25 MMCF per day per well, these 48 drilling rigs are associated with wells that will be making 960 to 1200 MMCF per day of "new gas" to the pipeline system in this play area once they are completed and put to sales. .

• Or 29 to 36 BCF per month of "new gas".

Just a different way of looking at how this play is developing and what it is bringing to the sales market.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 30, 2021 at 8:35

Good detail.  Thanks, RM

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Permalink Reply by Rock Man on January 30, 2021 at 8:55

Your welcome

At what point is the pipeline system in the ArkLaTex going to start seeing capacity / take issues? Lots of HV and other gas wells to be drilled over time.

• Plus the new pipelines from the Permian are bringing large gas volumes to the Tx Gulf Coast
• An example is the Kinder Morgan "Permian Highway" line - went operational in early January at 2.1 BCF per day (this I can see this line in the distance from the patio of my home in Hill Country).

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Permalink Reply by Steve P on January 30, 2021 at 11:58

For interstate NG pipelines, they will have to be permitted by FERC.  FERC’s five Commissioners serve staggered five year terms.  At some point within the next 4 years, Biden will have appointed a majority of the Commissioners.  It will be interesting to see how the energy policies we have seen implemented in the past 9 days will evolve over the next four years.  The good news for NG producers in both La. and Tx. is that, if needed, intrastate pipelines can be built to reach both the existing NG pipeline structure and the LNG plants along the Gulf Coast.

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Permalink Reply by Rock Man on January 30, 2021 at 12:03

Great comment! The future will be interesting for sure. 

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Permalink Reply by Chad Ellis on February 6, 2021 at 15:46

The Haynesville basin takeaway capacity is way under utilized.  We were handling this much pad IP easily during the heydays.  I will dig into my old notes and get you some comparisons later this weekend.  What has changed is where the gas is going.  Pre 2016, we had at least 7 - 36 to 42” lines that took our gas East or North.  This gas went to eastern markets or storage.  My company, Azure, could handle 2bcfd with no problems.  The new markets are beginning to be southern LNG facilities.  It’s these endpoints that can lead to the bottlenecks if they aren’t connected to storage or other markets.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 6, 2021 at 15:54

Chad, as far as you are aware, Is it easier to permit the intrastate pipelines that serve to eliminate the bottlenecks and connect to storage compared to interstate pipelines?

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Permalink Reply by Chad Ellis on February 6, 2021 at 16:22

As with most questions, it depends.  The length of the pipeline can change the chokepoint's as well as the classification.  The permitting requirements for a gathering or midstream pipeline is decidedly different from a transportation line.  Crossing rivers and railroads can delay more than state lines if the intrastate line has more permitting obstacles than the interstate.  That being said, most companies prefer to stay within state lines if possible.

Permalink Reply by Chad Ellis on February 7, 2021 at 15:34

I finally got around to my old notes.  The field as a whole easily moved 12bcfd back in 2011 and 12.  We had capacity in excess of 14bcfd.  There have been several more large takeaway lines built in the interim.  For comparison, the field is just now getting back to 12bcfd +.   

As a sidebar, when Exco was in gas factory mode, they would drill and complete 4 to 6 wells per pad and turn them to sales as one.  We would turn 100 to 120Mmcfd to sales at once.  The first one we did caused a drop in the spot market.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 8, 2021 at 0:30

Thanks, Chad.  Impressive.  I recall the hay day of the "Heart of the Haynesville" Shale, especially the Holly Field and Exco's field office and gas factory.  Nicest fences and lease roads I ever saw.  I used to pass it quite often.  Haven't been down Hwy 175 in a few years but work takes me to Mansfield this morning.  It's good to see Exco back to drilling.

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 6, 2021 at 3:21

LA: 34 - NO CHNAGE.

Bienville: Aethon (4), Comstock (1)

Bossier: GEP Haynesville (1), BPX (1), Ensight IV (1)

Caddo: Trinity (3), Chesapeake (2), Comstock (2), Blue Dome (1), Exco (1)

DeSoto: Comstock (4), Aethon (2), Vine (1), Goodrich (1), GEP Haynesville (1)

Natchitoches: Indigo (4)

Red River: GEP Haynesville (1)

Sabine: Indigo (2), Vine (1)

Webster: 0

TX:  14 - NO CHANGE.

Angelina: Aethon (1)

Harrison: Rockcliff (2), Sabine (1)

Nacogdoches: Aethon (1), BP America (1)

Panola: Rockcliff (3), Sabine (1), Pine Wave (1), Tanos (1), R Lacy (1)

San Augustine: Aethon (1)

Shelby: 0

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on February 13, 2021 at 3:33

LA: 33 - DECREASE OF 1.

Bienville: Aethon (3), Comstock (1)

Bossier: GEP Haynesville (1), BPX (1), Ensight IV (1)

Caddo: Trinity (3), Chesapeake (1), Comstock (1), Blue Dome (1), Exco (1)

DeSoto: Comstock (4), Aethon (2), Vine (1), Goodrich (1), GEP Haynesville (1)

Natchitoches: Indigo (4)

Red River: GEP Haynesville (1), BPX (1)

Sabine: Indigo (2), Vine (2)

Webster: 0

TX:  13 - DECREASE OF 1.

Angelina: Aethon (1)

Harrison: Rockcliff (2), Sabine (2)

Nacogdoches: Aethon (1)

Panola: Rockcliff (3), Pine Wave (1), Tanos (1), R Lacy (1)

San Augustine: Aethon (1)

Shelby: 0

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