Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by tc on January 28, 2015 at 9:53

Starting on page 24, the below link to their Sept presentation has about 6 maps of their TMS acreage location.

http://files.shareholder.com/downloads/ABEA-5X1N65/3906888102x0x779...

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 28, 2015 at 11:39

Thanks TC,

It was a little bit of a shock to see that much acreage leased and not hear much activity. Now I see why. Most of their activity is in MS. Just not seeing much activity in WF where most of the LA leases are. 

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 29, 2015 at 15:28

HK, GDP, ECA, SN and CRK TMS leasehold totals ~1,000,000 acres according to their corporate presentations.  If you arbitrarily take 1800 acres as the average unit size (MS & LA) ~550 unit wells would be required to complete lease capture.    So far the TMS operators mentioned have drilled ~90.  ECA is in the best position as far as completed wells to total acres under lease.  Obviously many leases will go un-drilled and will expire regardless of what happens with the price of crude.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2015 at 17:19

Skip, I agree. It was a shock to me that they had that much acreage leased and little activity in LA. As the map shows that TC sent me to: it appears that their focus was almost entirely MS as far as operating is concerned. It will be interesting to see who comes in to lease when this shake-out is through and these leases have expired.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 30, 2015 at 2:01

The bulk of Halcon's TMS acreage, about 200,000 if memory serves came from ECA.  ECA had twice that and retained the eastern half.  Some of the remaining HK total acreage is likely their initial Rapides Parish leases that were determined to be sub-economic with the first wells.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 30, 2015 at 3:47

Another point of interest. The AC never came back from the last "shake-out". Will the same thing happen with the TMS?

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by tc on January 30, 2015 at 4:53

That is a good question.  The bulls will say that the oil is there so someday somebody will come and get it.  But they forget that there are a lot of oil fields that history past on.  Look at Western PA, the birthplace of oil drilling, yet new and better oil projects were found, and the oil in PA was left in the ground.

Since there is only a finite amount of capital to drill for oil, it's not enough for an oil field to economical, but it needs to be more economical than other oil fields.  If you are the 97th most economical oil field to drill, but there is only enough capital to drill the top 50, guess what, you don't get developed. 

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 30, 2015 at 5:02

I've got a good bit of data on the TMS and have avoided fully crunching the numbers because I think I know the outcome.  High well cost.  Average well production below the type curve.  And that was before the collapse of crude prices.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on January 30, 2015 at 13:47

Dead Duck for now and Goodrich may bite the dirt without the help of China.

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by RGV AG on January 31, 2015 at 4:20

Yep, the future of the TMS is much more influenced by the price of oil than possibly some of the other plays.  I don't know much about the business, but I do know that technology in it is constantly evolving and with this downturn the focus on the completion and drilling side of the tight oil drilling will become, as happens in every industry or business, reducing costs.  Whereas the focus previously, at least to me, appeared to be how to increase numbers and volume of drilling and completing. 

I would imagine that the O&G industry is no different than any other in that in times of plenty the focus on efficiency and waste reduction is not at the forefront.  

Thus, if the price of oil does recover to somewhere between $70-$90 per barrel I think the TMS will continue to be researched and developed at a modest pace.  The main reason for that it is in a good location and the land and royalty costs of it are very low compared to the other plays.  If there is the perceived opinion that it can be economically developed , and maybe it can't, the possible long term rewards might keep it being researched for a period of time. 

$100 a barrel oil might be gone for a long while, but I think $80 a barrel is more likely in the future than $50.  Who knows. 

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by TMS Lease Hound on February 3, 2015 at 5:49

A majority of HK's Leases are in Wilkinson County, T1N-R1W--R4W, T2N-R1W--R4W; and they have been paying the 2 year Lease extensions on the original 3 year paid-up Lease since late 2014. It would be a perfect time for Top-Leasing for HK, ENC, SN, or GDP at cheaper Bonuses than 3 years ago ????

• ▶ Reply

Permalink Reply by Ken Braud on February 3, 2015 at 8:49

There are sites, both public (state of Miss) and others that have this info. I'd like to know if they are looking to lease other property in the area?  My in-laws lease ran out, and it is open for lease.  If anyone has any information please send it to me. kbraud2@cox.net.

• ▶ Reply

• ‹ Previous
• 1
• 2
• Next ›
• Page