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Permalink Reply by jffree1 on March 7, 2014 at 10:46

Small storage pull doesn’t ease supply concerns

Smith said early indications are for a pull in the neighborhood of 140 Bcf
in next week’s EIA report. He also pondered what many analysts and traders
are trying to calculate: just how refills to recent pre-winter levels of 3.6-3.8
Tcf can be accomplished from April through November if storage falls below
1 Tcf this heating season.
With the current summer strip at about $4.50/MMBtu, “that may not be
enough price” to refill to a comfortable level by fall, Smith said. “The reason
is, there’s no leeway for a hot summer. If we end up with one of the
kinds of summers that we had four to five years ago, we won’t be able to
close this deficit down. We know that our summers in recent years have
been more heat-prone than our winters have been cold-prone,” he said. And
so far the National Weather Service forecasts “are showing what looks like
a summer that’s quite a bit warmer than normal. So I think this storage vulnerability
will continue to weigh on the market this summer with prices
hewing to the upside.” The analyst said he has built in about a 1.2 to 1.3
Bcf/d dry gas production increase for the nine months from March to December.
But even that only gets storage to about 3.3 Tcf this fall, Smith
said. “Basically, if we get a hot summer this year and then a son of a vortex
next year – I don’t want to be heating with gas.”

http://www.rrc.state.tx.us/forms/publications/ngtrends/2014/NatGasT...

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Permalink Reply by adubu on March 7, 2014 at 11:00

jffree1--- your link with quote is identically same as I posted above ---LOL :-)  Did you intend to post another link or something else to compliment above ? 

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Permalink Reply by jffree1 on March 7, 2014 at 17:17

I posted some of the article since you didn't. The link was just to show that it was from the same source.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on March 8, 2014 at 4:53

jfree1--- OK but if you click on the link it downloads the complete Nat Gas trends report that include what you copy/paste maybe for some reason your PC did not download entire report but should have. Just for curiosity click on above link again I posted and see what you get?  then click on your link and see if same complete download?

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Permalink Reply by tc on March 7, 2014 at 13:03

“Basically, if we get a hot summer this year and then a son of a vortex
next year – I don’t want to be heating with gas.”

Of course the opposite of this (cool summer/warm winter) - I don't want to be a NG producer.

Until we get NG out of the weather business (thru LNG & more industrial/transportation use), predicting prices will always be challenging.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on March 7, 2014 at 13:59

tc-- correct but "it is what it is". For last couple decades the weather has been the primary driver of demand on supplies and prices.  You are correct more industrial use is needed and is coming plus LNG will result in about 15 BCFD in export with facilities completed but we are 2-3 years out before it starts.   

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Permalink Reply by kittycatmama on March 7, 2014 at 14:36

The ongoing conflict in the Ukraine has exposed the importance of the US exporting nat gas. The European Union depends on Russian and the Ukraine for natural gas. As a result they are hesitant to support sanctions in fear of losing their nat gas imports. This stresses the importance of the US exporting nat gas as part of our efforts to maintain our allies in Europe. Hopefully within the next 2 yrs. our LNG plants will be pumping out gas to Europe

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