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Permalink Reply by tc on February 27, 2014 at 7:03

The next 2 weeks are key.  But I think we may get below 1T.  This week in the Midwest has been much colder than normal and next week is also forecasted to be colder than normal.  If the next 2 draws are each between 125-150 bcf we should make it under 1T.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on February 27, 2014 at 7:22

you may well be correct, sir. although they're really pulling on it up there today. the consensus of forecasts is that it'll be much colder than normal up there through the 1st 1/3 to 1/2 of mar.

a minor positive going forward, even though the weather pattern has been changing over the last few weeks such that they're now getting rain/snow in the pacific nw, there's no way they'll be able to make much hydro this summer. there's just no appreciable snowpack. this represents meaningful, incremental summer load 'cause they'll be spooling up all the gas fired units they can find.

and, if we get a hotter than normal summer, which as of now we can't rule out; well, that's another "loss" of gas that would otherwise go to storage. 

of course, all of this and more may be offset by any hbp drilling done to capture $4.50 plus 2014 prices that can be realized by selling forward now. ceo lawler of chp was quoted in the houston chronicle this week as saying they're able to make money in the haynesville @ $4.50.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on February 27, 2014 at 13:37

"Colder than normal" is relative - most parts of the country will start a general upward trend, even if its a little below what the normal would be.   If it isn't cold enough to freeze in a bunch of Marcellus gas, I don't think its going to matter much.  

I stand with my prediction of 1.1 to 1.2 TCF in storage, and an eaerly end, relatively speaking, to withdrawal season.  

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