Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by adubu on January 15, 2015 at 17:04

skip--data from IP first 48 hours test reported to RRC Texas -- no data on # stages  reported -- Bottom hole pressure 7088 psia ;  shut-in 5675 --flowing tube pressure 5186  this is ZIPS and the Golden Flash similar  IP as stated was 8.8 mmcfd on ZIPS and after 40 months flowing still 1.8 mmcfd 

Golden Flash IP 7.6 mmcfd and after 15 months still flowing at 4.5 mmcfd

Lateral length on ZIPS was 5,000'  and the Golden Flash 4553'

As you can see these are DRY GAS the ZIPS has made 2 BOE Condensate

Gold Flash -ZERO- 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 16, 2015 at 9:19

Best estimate is that these are modest Tier Two wells with EURs of approximately 5 BCF.  Early E TX HA wells are often not the best barometer of rock quality in a given area depending on their well design.  5 BCF wells drilled in 2010/2011 could be 6 BCF or better with the newer designs.

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Permalink Reply by Spring Branch,mineral owner on January 16, 2015 at 10:29

Zips has already produced more than 5 BCF.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 16, 2015 at 11:09

What is current production, SB?  And cumulative total in months of production? 

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Permalink Reply by adubu on January 20, 2015 at 2:24

Skip--review production of both wells posted data from RRC will answer current production and cumulative totals each month
Since ZIPS already produced >5BCF hard to believe it will only make another BCF only in life of well since still making 1.8 mmcfd

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on January 20, 2015 at 2:36

adubu, I don't have the time or the inclination to perform any research on this particular well.  I stand by my earlier comments.  The key word is "approximately".  There is no such thing as a hard and fast rule applicable to all wells.  Believe what you wish.

Permalink Reply by adubu on January 20, 2015 at 2:51

Skip SORRY if I wasted your time
I had always respected your opinion Your reply shocked me. No research time required for you since I posted all the data on these two wells
If these wells were in LA I am sure you would have opinion on EUR with data posted
Texas I guess you think rock is different HS in Texas v La

Permalink Reply by john goodday on January 20, 2015 at 10:17

BHP will announce a significant reduction in shale drilling budget on Wed.  (rumored to be 50%).  That's a start in the right direction that would surely benefit Natural Gas prices.  Should others like CHK, Exco, etc. follow suit and quit giving away Nat. Gas ($2.83 current price) - the entire industry would be much better off.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on January 20, 2015 at 15:34

Adubu,

On Zips, fit a curve to the last 6-8 months worth of production.  Then project that curve for another 36 months and see where you are.  

If production decline is still in the 50% per year range, the next year would see maybe 0.6 BCF, then the next year 0.3 BCF in year 2, and finally 0.15 BCF in year 3.  Thats assuming it can be produced without compression, and that there isn't a refrac.  

Permalink Reply by adubu on January 21, 2015 at 2:58

Dbob
Thanks for info it looks like decline has slow some from ~50% year one to ~35% last 6-8 month that still major amount. I though decline levels out to slow decline after 4-5 years to around 8-10% of original IP for several years
So it looks like Zips will end up about a 7 BCF well
What data and results on reFrac in HS, is it economical?
Is cost same as original frac? If so that's about 60% of well cost i.e. 5-6 million

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