Adubu is busy working on other matters, so I'll step in to pinch hit...

From EIA:

"Working gas in storage was 1,686 Bcf as of Friday, February 7, 2014, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 237 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 863 Bcf less than last year at this time and 631 Bcf below the 5-year average of 2,317 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 315 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 106 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 232 Bcf below the 5-year average of 845 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 89 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 84 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 42 Bcf. At 1,686 Bcf, total working gas is below the 5-year historical range."

working gas is below the 5-year historical range. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2009 through 2013.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

From Marketwatch:

March natural gas NGH14 +0.33% rose 40 cents, or 8.3%, to settle at $5.22 per million British thermal units. Prices, which closed nearly flat on Wednesday, were trading at around $4.96 before the supply data. They trade over 9% higher week to date and closed at their highest since Feb. 4, FactSet data show.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of natural gas dropped 237 billion cubic feet for the week ended Feb. 7. The drop was a bit higher than market expectations as analysts surveyed by Platts forecast a decline of between 228 billion cubic feet and 232 billion cubic feet. [Emphasis added.]

The decline compares with last year’s withdrawal of 152 billion cubic feet, as well as the five-year average drawdown of 162 billion cubic feet, according to EIA data, and total supplies in storage were at 1.686 trillion cubic feet, the lowest level of supply for a first week of February since 2004. [Emphasis added.]

Natural-gas prices Thursday also got a sizable boost in the wake of reports that part of a natural-gas pipeline may have been shutdown following an explosion.

“An explosion on a major pipeline from the Gulf Coast to the Northeast could send spot prices soaring,” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group.

NiSource Inc. reported early Thursday a rupture in a pipeline in Adair County, Kent. In a Thursday afternoon update, it said that overnight, personnel shut a main line valve, stopped the flow of natural gas to the rupture area and isolated the damaged portion of the pipeline. A Reuters report was a bit more straight forward, saying that NiSource shut part of the Columbia Gulf Transmission interstate natural-gas pipeline following an explosion and fire."

Upshot: We are below post-Shale storage volumes, and over 25% offset from the post-Shale 5-year average.  Hooray for Natural Gas!  Unfortunately, someone is liable to open the spigots.  Long-range weather predictions indicate continued cold in the Midwest, slightly milder in intensity to the Northeast, for the next 2 - 4 weeks.  Where will we land at the end of the drawdown???

{Publication credit given to EIA.gov and Marketwatch.com - links to their stories conserved}

Tags: EIA, Gas, Marketwatch, Natural, Storage, ngs

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1.1 to 1.2 BCF

One of the worst winters in years and it's not making a dollar's difference...

From the story:

The decline compares with last year’s withdrawal of 152 billion cubic feet, as well as the five-year average drawdown of 162 billion cubic feet, according to EIA data, and total supplies in storage were at 1.686 trillion cubic feet, the lowest level of supply for a first week of February since 2004. [Emphasis added.] 

How does this work?  Is all of the gas that's produced today being used up and they have to supplement with gas in storage?  How low would be "good", given we're looking at trillion's?

Max - 

Essentially all the gas that is being produced right now is being used.  If you look at the usage over the past few weeks, and assume it continued into the future, we would have about 6 more weeks of gas in storage to burn through before storage was "0".  There is actually a little more than that, but its necessary to keep some gas in the formation to help keep things open/etc.  

The EIA has historic data regarding how much gas flowed from storage at a given week.  For instance, if you assume that the 5 year average would be our withdrawal for the foreseeable future, we would have about 10 weeks of gas left.  

In the typical year however, usage drops off and we start getting over supplied with gas toward the end of March.  That starts the injection season.  

IMHO, injection season will start earlier this year due to over supply from the Marcellus shale.  

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