Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Andrew on April 7, 2013 at 8:39

Question 1: it seems like a new gas-rich tight play is established every year. And we haven't even begun to fool with the tier-2 gas plays yet. For example, If the recent reports from the area are indicative of the play, the Picance Niobrara will rival the Barnett Shale in production and economics, and people only really took notice of it in the last 6 months. That said, I don't think we'll see another Haynesville Shale-type feeding frenzy in a gas play for a long time, if ever. The operators thought that the Haynesville was a once in a lifetime discovery rather than a twice in a decade discovery. The Haynesville hangover is still painful to most who partook in outrageous acquisition prices. Look no further than GMX.

Question 2: I think it's much less likely. The market for oil is a global one, whereas the market for gas is a regional one. Simply put, it would take a whole lot bigger of a production boom to affect the global oil supply enough to crush prices like the gas rush has.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on April 7, 2013 at 3:56

skip----predicting gas prices for 2020 just use marketcycles boom bust numbers add inflation--- but doubt see another bubble high like $14 just like we have not seen another bubble high on Tulips prices several hundred years ago. This should clear the "Mud" from  your crystal ball. Don't You see now it's as easy as calculating predictablilty of Women.   Hope this helps you understand 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 7, 2013 at 3:58

Not really but thanks any way.  LOL!

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Permalink Reply by adubu on April 7, 2013 at 15:05

Skip--- Bottom line the Market always cures it self. Always goes too far both direction too high /too low before it settle into price that will support supply/demand for peroid of time. All the area where oil&gas have been found today and past with reserves not produced yet will someday be drilled and produced. If not in our life time then will in our children or grand children's life. Of course Me like You would prefer it ( our minerals)be drilled during our life time so we can enjoy it today in near future.So God willing if We both still here on this Earth email me in 2020 and I will tell you what Nat Gas price for sure that date in 2020 :)

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 7, 2013 at 15:11

Shale gas will put an end to extreme price fluctuations owing to front end weighted production volume and steep decline curve.  Producers will be able to balance supply to  demand in a way never before possible with conventional production.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on April 7, 2013 at 11:07

I have only experience of having lived thru things most people never dreamed would come about.

I still have a couple of ration stamp books from my childhood.  These were required for everything from buying shoes, tires, gas and butter.

Government control was everywhere  and we had a senate and congress who still respected the constitution.

Coal (and probably Lignite) are things soon to be from the past. It won't matter that coal will burn hotter then oil and gas. 

If you don't think that these mines and plants can be closed asap I can quote people who never dreamed that all the steel mills in this country would close.  Or that we would no longer need buggy whips.

I had uncles who til they died refused to buy anything marked Made in Japan.  They would have had cardiac arrest at Walmart with the Made in China labels.

We are on the brink of war.  Its all so confusing that I get whiplash looking from side to side trying to determine where the attack is going to come from. If its from Korea..what makes anybody think we would win with that?  I remember the 13 refugees I sponsored when we ran from S. Korea in panic.  We got our butts whipped after more ten a decade of our young people's blood being wasted there. 

But the same dynamics that drove shortage of rubber for tires will drive energy prices up.

I predict that we will have natural gas vehicles to drive and it won't be years or decades from today.

So far as $4 or $5 or whatever number you want to put on NG..it won't matter..It will go up but inflation for now will drive it up.  Could be $12 again..due to devalued dollar.

That won't help anybody.

WE are on a roller coaster with no brakes..

The stocks driving the market now are companies that build NOTHING..its all as much air as the Dot.com fiasco.

Who really cares whether Google or Facebook or Twitter or Apple comes out ahead? Other then the gamblers who have a stake in those stocks.

I want to know what essential products are coming off the assembly line and whether they are manufactured here in USA or across the border in Mexico.

So I amend my prediction..natural gas will soar to $12 but it will be inflated dollars not today's dollar making up that number.

I know..I earned my handle  KOH.

I just want you guys to wake up and try to stop the madness out there...

I want you to have the freedom and opportunities that I had.  I want your children to come out of a high school with more then a 4th grade education.

I want you to have access to a college for them that teaches rather then indoctrinates.

And yes,  I want those wells drilled on my pad site.

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Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on April 7, 2013 at 11:49

Invest in bottles of Kentucky Bourbon, a great American product. It will only go up with inflation along with the fact that many will be wanting to cry in their beer, better bang for the buck with bourbon, when they look back and see the way the good old USA use to be.

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Permalink Reply by Glenn Kadison on April 7, 2013 at 12:59

Old Charter and Water, straight up. No other way.

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Permalink Reply by Two Dogs, Pirate on April 7, 2013 at 13:38

Will have to balace the inventory with some good and some not so good to make any money. May even need to put some food coloring and water into Everclear. Kinda like whitewashing rat turds and selling them for rice.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on April 7, 2013 at 15:52

Skip-- yep probably correct statement but regardless if it's Shale Gas or whatever new technology developed in future it's still all in supply/demand for we have still had severe fluctuations in prices >$14 to < $1.50 over last 6 years consider fact shale gas in production for > 10 years. Maybe all the operators needed to get their footprint into Shale and gets some HBP leases resulting in a "Gold Rush" in Shale with temporary over production supply that killed prices. So maybe operators have learn lesson and now like you think they will use knowledge to control supply to demand better but I don't know due to "Greed" they will all want to drill if we see $4.50-$5 gas and here we go again, but "old man market" will cure that also.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on April 7, 2013 at 16:03

The ability to put on the brakes and regulate production to match demand is only now becoming a possibility.  Although shale gas has been around for over a decade it has only recently reached a percentage of overall nat gas production that allows for that kind of adjustment.  Double digit nat gas prices are history.  And six dollar gas on a sustained basis is probably a decade or more away.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on April 7, 2013 at 16:10

The ability to do that will require the USA to form a "OPEC"for local Nat Gas. -- Skip- Do you thing that could happen without the FEDS stepping in. I see your crystal ball has cleared up --$6 gas in 2023 or so that close to my 2020 prediction ---LOL

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