Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by mt "bee" meadows on January 29, 2014 at 5:14

Are we just getting lip service from our President regarding the importance NG is and will play in US energy future promotion? This is what he said 01/28/2014:

Now, one of the biggest factors in bringing more jobs back is our commitment to American energy. The "all the above" energy strategy I announced a few years ago is working, and today America is closer to energy independence than we have been in decades. (Applause.)

One of the reasons why is natural gas. If extracted safely, it's the bridge fuel that can power our economy with less of the carbon pollution that causes climate change. (Applause.) Businesses plan to invest almost a hundred billion dollars in new factories that use natural gas. I'll cut red tape to help states get those factories built and put folks to work, and this Congress can help by putting people to work building fueling stations that shift more cars and trucks from foreign oil to American natural gas. (Applause.)

I hurd the words, but his lips were moving which means ????

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 29, 2014 at 5:21

Afraid you right..his lips were moving.

I thought I heard him say he would encourage auto makers to manufacture natural gas vehicles. 

Guess we will watch and find out what he really will do and not do.

Mostly I heard him declare that he will end breaks to oil companies.  Does he not understand that those are also natural gas companies?

Going to be rough three years for energy related firms.

He just got a bunch of min.. wage workers laid off...these service industries cannot support a sudden increase in costs brought on by that large an increase in min wage.  I used to be glad to get the 18 cent and hour raises we got as nurses.  Wow, a $2 an hour increase over night...amazing.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 29, 2014 at 5:26

I listened to every word last night.  Might have to have my teeth capped from the grinding.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2014 at 8:24

NG price hit $5.508 at 1:08 pm CT. Depending on the amount of profit taking we are in the $6.00 range by the end of the week.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on January 29, 2014 at 8:29

joe, the feb contract rolls off the board today (i believe). the mar contract is trading @ $5.30 MOL. jim

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2014 at 8:31

Thanks Jim. I was not aware of that. Right now its at 5.666 and rising. 

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on January 29, 2014 at 8:54

wow! it's been a heck of a ride since that first, early cold snap around dec 1. we've had two $0.50 up days in the past week(7 days). so, it's not inconceivable that mar could reach $6.00.

i guy i once worked with explained to me his theory as to why gas prices moved the way they did. he felt that the contract moves in such a fashion to cause/inflict the most pain possible to the most possible people. i can't say that i could disagree with him.

i'm sure there are some shorts out there today thinking about jumping out of windows a la the '29 equity markets crash.per the cftc site,commitments of traders, if i read it correctly, the swap dealers, net of spread positions, are very, very short.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2014 at 9:15

Jim,

I don't see why experienced traders would not have seen this coming. Don't they look at the factors around the commodity that they are trading? Or is it just blind trading with a hope and a prayer. 

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on January 29, 2014 at 9:21

they say that good traders are a lot like good gamblers in that both are very comfortable with risk. a somewhat related expression being "faint heart never won fair maiden".

note:  by volume, most market participants are natural longs, think producers, or natural shorts, think end users. it's the non-commercial players on the margin that provide the market with necessary liquidity.

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Permalink Reply by tc on January 29, 2014 at 9:20

As much NG as the country uses, the NG futures market is not that large and a relatively small amount of capital can move the market.  Its a place for fast money and a lot of TUMS.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2014 at 9:23

LOL.............

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on January 29, 2014 at 9:36

your point is well taken. the vast,overwhelming majority of physical gas is sold under "index" price terms. commercial players, both producers and end users will from time to time hedge via the contract or via its proxy, commodity swaps. and, physical volumes trump(are far larger) than paper volumes.

i understand that traders from around the world trade natty because it's the most volatile exchange traded commodity in the world. traders of all stripes are uniformly adrenaline junkies.

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