Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Gale on August 4, 2015 at 10:55

So has Samson actually filed? I cannot confirm this online,I'm only seeing it predicted that they might file!

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 4, 2015 at 11:00

Gale, Samson has not filed yet.  They have announced publicly that they intend to do so.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 4, 2015 at 12:26

Stock price: CRK (NYSE)

$0.99 -0.13 (-11.25%)

August 4, 2015 at 4:00:51 PM EDT

 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 4, 2015 at 14:37

Stock price: XCO (NYSE)

$0.53 -0.04 (-6.79%)

August 4, 2015 at 6:15:13 PM EDT

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Permalink Reply by Gale on August 4, 2015 at 16:55

Thanks Skip, that was what I was finding and was wondering if I was missing something. Thanks for all your help always!

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 5, 2015 at 1:08

You're welcome, Gale.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 5, 2015 at 14:24

Stock price: XCO (NYSE)

$0.51 -0.02 (-4.29%)

August 5, 2015 at 4:05:01 PM EDT

 

Stock price: GDP (NYSE)

$0.72 -0.16 (-18.18%)

August 5, 2015 at 6:19:04 PM EDT

 

Stock price: CRK (NYSE)

$1.19 +0.19 (+19.20%)

August 5, 2015 at 4:01:29 PM EDT

 

Stock price: HK (NYSE)

$0.98 -0.04 (-3.92%)

Aug 5, 4:06 PM EDT

 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 6, 2015 at 12:39

Stock price: GDP (NYSE)

$0.75 +0.00 (+0.54%)

August 6, 2015 at 4:06:36 PM EDT

 

Stock price: XCO (NYSE)

$0.59 +0.07 (+14.36%)
Aug 6, 5:24 PM EDT

 

Stock price: CRK (NYSE) 

$1.59   + 0.40

 

Stock price: HK (NYSE)

$0.97 -0.01 (-1.01%)
Aug 6, 4:03 PM EDT

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 7, 2015 at 14:33

Wholesale Spot Petroleum Prices, 8/06/15 Close
Product	Area	Price	Percent Change*
Crude Oil ($/barrel)	WTI	44.69	-1.0
	Brent	47.80	-2.5
	Louisiana Light	48.44	+0.4

 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 7, 2015 at 14:41

A lot of members have Internet access but don't follow the trajectory of commodity prices.  This discussion thread is about reminding them to keep up with what is happening with their operators and to make plans to take action in the case of a bankruptcy filing.  Yes, it is a bummer.  However it is reality and a potential  problem for mineral lessors who need to be prepared to act in order to protect their mineral interests.  The chance that GHS members may have to deal with this issue is increasing daily.

Permalink Reply by tc on August 8, 2015 at 16:37

More potential bad news for these companies.  In the "Overheard" column of the 8/8/15 WSJ it talks about how Carl Icahn now has a 8.2% stake in Cheniere Energy and that he may want the company to scale back its expansion plans, so less NG turning into LNG. 

Also from the article.  A year ago NG for 2017 avg. $4.25 and implied cost to deliver LNG to Asia was $10.59, but Brent futures were $100 implying an Asian LNG price of $15 and hence a healthy margin.  Today with Brent's collapsed the implied spread is a negative 44 cents

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on August 9, 2015 at 0:43

Thanks, tc.  I've seen similar break downs for US LNG economics.  I have occasionally posted that global LNG pricing will become increasingly competitive as significant domestic tonnage enters the market.  The US will have a number of competitors who have low NG prices and lower transportation costs to some of the major global end users.  I think your example illustrates quite well the fact that the economics have already shifted quite far from when the decisions were made to build US LNG export facilities.

There is another challenge for a sharp and significant recovery of domestic NG prices.  A "V" shaped recovery would require a significant increase in demand and a lag in supply to meet that demand.  The prospects for global economies improving that much in a short span of time appear extremely unlikely.  The US economy is one of the few that has largely recovered from the global recession and some major countries are still on the decline with China being the main example. One of the great advantages of shale gas, and oil for that matter, now seems to have become another challenge to price support.  In the past conventional production with modest initial flows and flatter decline characteristics would take some time to catch up to demand.  With unconventional gas and oil energy companies can ramp up supply much more quickly.  Right now IMO one of the starkest prospects weighing on future crude prices is how much new production will be stimulated by very modest price increases.  There are many basins that with improved recovery methods now provide attractive ROIs at $55 to $65 a barrel crude.  As any future increase in oil demand causes prices to rise even modestly companies will rapidly ramp up drilling programs and supply will catch up to demand over a much shorter time span.

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