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Permalink Reply by P.G. on November 19, 2010 at 10:07

What's the likelihood of them drilling dry holes in the Haynesville shale boundries?

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Permalink Reply by Robert Duke on November 19, 2010 at 10:21

Even more apropos to me, what the heck are the current best guesses for the HS boundaries? Any updates since the ~March PHK maps (that showed, if I recollect, mostly a smaller core than other folks were estimating)? I have not seen Encana change their maps, and I like their maps, but that is a purely subjective judgement, based on where my acreage is. Any further data coming in on the Bossier Shale I might have missed? My best guess is that things are just going plain slow, and 2-3 yrs from now we will really know what is going on; I am trying to learn to be a bit more patient and realistic, but it is a definite growth experience ;-) (I NEED info nowwwww!!!! - like that really helps... ;-)). I have been encouraged to hear reports of drilling to the East over in Natchitoches...

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on November 19, 2010 at 10:49

I am unaware of a single "dry hole" in the Haynesville Play including the boundary areas. I am aware of a number of wells that are not sufficiently productive to be "commercial". The first were in northern Caddo and Bossier parishes. Then in the Logansport Field. The Petrohawk map correlates well with both these areas. There are several other areas where there are currently too few or too widely scattered completions to make a firm determination. The prospective nature of the Ashland Field in Natchitoches is unknown at this time. What is difficult for most casual observers to understand is that there are more Bossier Shale completions than have been announced publicly. They all are called "Haynesville wells" as the Bossier is included in the depth definition of all Haynesville Drilling Units. It takes a comparison of the depth where the perforations are located to get an idea of what is truly Haynesville and what is Bossier. There will be areas where one is commercial and the other is not across the southern half of the Play.

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Permalink Reply by essay on November 19, 2010 at 10:57

if they say it was uneconomical it's uneconomical, i just wonder if they're factoring in any of the political hostility evidenced by the "guardian of the earth" type responses to that article trumpeting the lack of productive resources as a victory.

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Permalink Reply by jffree1 on November 19, 2010 at 11:06

That may have a bearing Essay but that country is very mountainous too. I think building infrastructure to support the wells is going to be terribly expensive. JMO, the wells have to be more than marginally economic to justify that build out.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on November 19, 2010 at 11:47

The determination of "economic or commercial" is an ever changing definition. What is not at $4.50 gas may be at $6.00 gas. On the cost side much of the Marcellus is rough country for drilling operations. I built a nat gas pipeline through some of that area in the 70's and it has got to add significantly to the cost of many of the wells and much of the infrastructure. I posted an article in the Oil & Gas Professional group the other day concerning new drilling technology that allowed Forest Oil to drill a HA horizontal to Total Depth in 16 days instead of their average 31. In the future with an improved price environment and lower operating costs areas of the Haynesville Shale now deemed uneconomic may be sufficiently profitable to get drilled. So much depends on price; and so much of price depends on the political will of elected representatives to pass common sense energy legislation.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on November 20, 2010 at 6:00

Excerpt from another article on the same story.

Though the entire county sits atop the Marcellus Shale, it lies near the southwestern edge of a smaller zone, in which scientists and natural gas drillers have predicted drilling to be economically worthwhile. Encana drilled its exploratory wells in Lake and Fairmont townships, near that median.

“Over time, we’ve seen the industry trying to define where the limits of where the Marcellus play are,” said Dave Messersmith, an educator with Penn State University Cooperative Extension and a member of Penn State’s Marcellus Education Team.

“So we have a basic understanding of the geology, but in many cases, it really takes some exploratory wells to really understand what the potential is,” he said.

Messersmith said he expects to see companies drill more exploratory wells to define the edges of the economically viable shale play in Northeastern Pennsylvania generally.

“It’s a highly speculative business, especially in the early stages of a play’s development,” Messersmith said, adding that cases like Encana’s are “pretty common within the industry. We haven’t seen a lot of that happen in Pennsylvania, but obviously, as the years pass, we will see industry continue to look at the edges of the play.”

Encana’s experience offers a good indication that the shale’s pay zone lies beyond the county, Wilkes University Geology and Chemistry Professor Brian Redmond said.

“The prospects of finding a large quantity of natural gas in Luzerne County probably plummeted as a result of Encana,” Redmond said. “It was worth the shot; it just apparently didn’t pay off.”

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Permalink Reply by essay on November 22, 2010 at 10:32

it is interesting to think how much more of an impact a few obstinate landowners with strategic property locations would have in a constricted geographical area, versus somewhere like, oh i dunno, northwest louisiana where people are generally friendlier to start and can be physically circumnavigated in a pinch. /grin

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on November 22, 2010 at 9:26

A little help is always welcome. Thanks.

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Permalink Reply by Walter Phillips on November 24, 2010 at 4:43

I'm surprised that Encana decided to do anything in this area in the first place. My mapping over that area had the Marcellus climbing updip and thinning significantly to the point it put it well below the economic threshold that we could make work. The area was also getting close enough to the "toast" line...overcooked...to make us nervous about rock and reservoir quality.

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