I know that many people in Avoyelles signed with EOG and some signed with Halcon around the 2011 - 2012 time range and they had a 3 year lease with an option to renew after three years if the lease wasn't held by production. Well it's about time for the renews to start or possibly ,,,,, not. Is anyone hearing anything on that front?
In my gut I would think that the the Halcon wells in Rapides, the lower initial production rates of the EOG wells and the success in the eastern part of the play may have Avoyelles landowners not getting renewed under the contracted terms unless the greater oil maket dictates otherwise.
Any thoughts or news?
I'll post when the INDIGO 25 H #1 is spud. I suspect a number of members will want to follow the progress.
You can bet I'll be watching, I have money riding on this!
I'll post a discussion in the Tuscaloosa Marine Shale Group, not the Main Page, when drilling gets under way.
I was in Vernon Parish today and the Clerk of Court told me that a friend of his had told him that he had rocked out the well site. Looks like this is a go for the West side of the play. Got my fingers crossed.
Two Dogs, this is one landowner hoping that this is a really good well. The western side of this play needs some action. Now that these guys have learned how to drill a well in this shale maybe we can make this a huge success for everybody involved.
I am with you DC, if EOG can bring in one close to 1000 BOPD then we are still in the game.
I would be cool with 1000 a day.
Does anyone know if the average decline rate in the TMS is any better than the other plays suck as the Bakken or the Eagleford so far ?
Jay, I'm just looking for the decline rate on the wells that have been producing for a year. There are a few that fit that bill aren't they ?
Goodrich's Crosby well had an 80% decline in the first year. I little worse than their Eagle Ford wells. As the laterals get longer in the TMS the decline curve could get flatter.
I could be way off base but I don't think a longer lateral can change the decline curve.
A longer lateral should simply give you more production but the decline rate happens at the same percentage regardless the lateral length.
Now different completion, drilling, well placement methods, ETC, can have a major effect on decline rate.
In my view if you drill a 1000 foot lateral that starts producing at 500 bbls/day and then you drill a 5000 foot lateral (with everything the same as the 1000 foot lateral) and that well starts at 2500 bbls/day, then your decline rate should be the same at the end of the year.
What am I missing?
Keith, a longer lateral doesn't give you a 1 for 1 increase in IP. A longer lateral gives you access to more oil bearing rock.
Think of this rock as a swimming pool and the longer the lateral the bigger the pool, but when you try to drain the pool with a hose, its the hose that makes a big difference on how fast the pool drains. The choke size and pressure of the hose have a lot to do with the decline curve of emptying the pool. This just a simple example and not meant to cover all the variables of decline curves.
The decline rates seem to be as expected,if you listen to the operators, at around 80-90%. I know of at least 2 wells that started just above 1000 2 years ago and are each at about 100-150 bopd now and have been for the past year, but these were early wells and hopefully some improvements will be made in time. There is a glimmer of hope that the last wells in the deeper TMS will decline more slowly, some evidence of that is being seen in the GDP Beech Grove well and possibly the SLC, but it is early. Those wells had 24 hour ips under 1000 but early reports and rumors are they are sustaining initial #'s longer and in the case of the SLC the flow rate improved a couple hundred barrels per day since the early ip test. I think we can expect 85% declines for now in the 1st year and a leveling off after that - that is what I see from the better current wells. IMO.