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Permalink Reply by Hopeful About Natural Gas on February 23, 2014 at 19:47

A lot of worry is starting around how FLAMMABLE the natural gas from North Dakota and Canada may be. The big accident that killed 47 people is being blamed on the extra flammability of the oil/ng shale they have up there. It is also one of the latest talking points against fracking into shale.

Suppose communities simply do not want trains with oil that has a lot of ng going through their communities? I agree the Canadians will simply go due West to the Pacific with their pipeline.

But, if the oil/gas from North Dakota is locked up because it's a long distance from anywhere would that improve the outlook in our area??

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Permalink Reply by Dion Warr, CPL on February 24, 2014 at 11:04

HANG:

You touch on a point here that has just annoyed the %$#@! of me ever since this "news" was released.  How is gas from the Bakken more flammable?  Produced natural gas is mostly methane (CH4), which has a standard reactivity, vapor pressure, and enthalpy and entropy characteristics.  Basically, its ability to combust is known. its ability to expand is known, and its ability to contribute heat to the surrounding environment through known states and that of its combustive byproducts are known.  How is this gas MORE flammable?  Is there "nitromethane" coming about the ground in the Dakotas?  Are heavier components in the natural gas being treated or being made more reactive through processing (some ethane > ethylene > acetylene or EO process) happening?  If not, this is just fearmongering.

The crude oil component is a little more complex.  Lighter and sweeter crudes have lower effective vapor pressure(s) than heavier and/or sour crudes, and ratios of respective hydrocarbon species can contribute to different behaviors, but these are known (or can be observed and/or predicted) by conducting simple tests on produced crude.  In short, it all BURNS, given correct conditions, but the combination of vapors and expansion can create a burn which is slower, or faster to the point nearing explosion.  If explosive characteristics are of concern, this only underscores the need to transport these products via pipeline (pressure is limited by design, combustibility is limited by limiting exposure to oxidation - in the open, predominantly free O2) rather than running it around on trains where vessels are jostled about or can derail.  But we already have ways of limiting these risks even for rail cars, provided that the railroads use those cars specifically designed for carriage of that type of cargo.

Forgive me for the rant, but IMO the purported increased "flammability" issues revolving around transport of Bakken crude and natural gas appears to be as overblown as issues cited with frac fluids (BTW, at least one story I reviewed from my research basically alleged that these two issues were somehow linked).  Knowledge is power; correctly characterizing the products leads to appropriate choices being made on the part of materials handlers, transporters and first responders to safely handle and transport products and institution of procedures to deal with everyday and emergency issues.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on February 24, 2014 at 1:52

2/23/14 - The market opened above Friday's close and this is Monday. The high in over night trading was 6.49. It looks like we are on a run. So will the price hit 7.00 before the end of the month?

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Permalink Reply by tc on February 24, 2014 at 2:02

It has to happen by Weds. as the March NG futures contract rolls over that night to the April contract which is now trading at only $5.17.

"Only $5.17", a few months ago we would have been happy if that was the winter high price.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on February 24, 2014 at 2:04

LOL............... I agree.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on February 24, 2014 at 2:47

Jay,

I agree. I did not expect the prices to go this high this fast. But once something starts it becomes a feeding frenzy. The fast move up in higher trade prices could start to affect other areas of the economy. Especially, if it stays high for a long time. And yes you are right the over pricing will have a fall (sooner or later) and that fall will overshoot the true value.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on February 24, 2014 at 2:27

So funny.  Giggling over my coffee... its now when "will it hit $7?"  gets better and better.

On my coffee...tho,  its from that new Kuerig machine and it kind of has a plastic taste. 
Anybody else notice that from the machines? Going back to my old perc.

Because I don't want anything distracting me from the $7 when speculations.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on February 24, 2014 at 5:02

 maybe, the contract is trying to revert to contango.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on February 24, 2014 at 8:04

as of this writing, the 2014 strip, mar-dec, has 'essentially' gone contango.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on February 24, 2014 at 8:22

oops, i should have said 2014 has gone contango apr-dec. my bad.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on February 24, 2014 at 8:27

looks like we should go back to the original question on this tread -- WHEN WILL NAT GAS HIT $5 ?

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on February 24, 2014 at 8:48

were it my thread, i'd retitle it "when will we have a > $5.00 annual strip?"

last oct, i couldn't see it but now after a most generous winter, i feel its possible/imaginable. oh, and i hope i don't jinx things by suggesting that we might see it.

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