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Permalink Reply by adubu on May 19, 2013 at 13:49

Skip------- What's the latest numbers of new drilling permits in the HA and remaining approved permits undrilled that you have seen any data on?

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 19, 2013 at 14:13

Haynesville Well Count As of April 13:

Producing:  2148

Waiting On Completion:  140

Drilling In Progress:  33

Permitted, Not Drilling:  64

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Permalink Reply by adubu on May 19, 2013 at 14:22

Permitted not drilled getting lower and lower -- not long before inventory drilled--- any new permits showing up? Especially any new units not HBP. I suspect everything leased that are good prospects are in plans drilling to make HBP---you hear of any new leases anywhere in Dry gas

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 19, 2013 at 14:25

Yes to new permits.  Especially EnCana & SWEPI.  Mostly alternate unit wells but some new unit wells.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on May 19, 2013 at 14:26

Encouraging to hear of new unit wells

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 19, 2013 at 14:41

Just 1 in last 30 days.  On the other end of the spectrum KCS permitted an 18th. and a 20th. alternate in one unit, S36-15N-13W.  Everyone's unit should have 20 wells.  LOL!

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Permalink Reply by adubu on May 19, 2013 at 15:07

BHP at least has the money to drill out a unit -- S36-15N-13W must be in sweet core area-- maybe by 2100 all HBP unit will have 20 wells -- don't think you or I will see it. LOL!

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 19, 2013 at 15:12

The Haynesville will be drilled out by 2030 and production will have declined to insignificant levels by 2060, if not sooner.  I don't think you will see it either.  I'll be 108.  LOL!

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Permalink Reply by dbob on May 19, 2013 at 15:17

Skip

is 2030 tongue in cheek, random guess, or a reasonable target?

Permalink Reply by adubu on May 19, 2013 at 15:18

2030 maybe I be only 90 ---- BTW why still high # 140 waiting to be completed? Lack of Fac Crews or Operator choice not to increase more supplies into market--what's you thought?

Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 19, 2013 at 15:35

dbob, if you basically ignore 2008 for the simple reason that there were few wells drilled and completed, then 2009 to present saw approximately 2100 wells drilled and completed.  Those years cover steady drilling under good pricing and the need to hold leases and years of slowing production under poor pricing and rapidly declining requirement to drill to hold leases.  The average would be in the neighborhood of 466 wells drilled, completed and turned to sales per annum. Seventeen and half additional years averaging in that range would give us about 10,250 Haynesville wells.  At one time it appeared likely that operators would seek to reduce well spacing in areas of better rock which would have rendered that number short of the actual.  Now it appears that the intent is to drill the longest practical laterals covering multiple units/section (cross unit laterals/PSAs).  Of course this is all speculation based on data in the Louisiana state O&G databases.  If I'm close on LA, I think things will be much the same for E TX.  The larger of the unknowns is the productive life of the average Haynesville horizontal well.  Thirty years is likely over optimistic.  Twenty may be closer to the actual.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on May 19, 2013 at 15:40

adubu, may you live to see the last Haynesville well drilled, at least.  As to completion dynamics, I do not have sufficient information to form an opinion.

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