Replies to This Discussion

Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2014 at 9:02

Its interesting. When I was in college 40 years ago we studied the Boom and Bust of Agriculture in Ag. Economics and how outside factors affected the movement of prices of products produced. Its really the same when it comes to NG. A factor like weather can really turn thing around quickly in the market. This has been an interesting study in economics and commodity price movement. It will be interesting to see how far it goes and how fast given the cold weather we are having and the additional demands from NG usage.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on January 29, 2014 at 9:17

if this price trend holds up, i predict that we'll be hearing shortly from the "usual suspects", you know, those "market zone" senators and congressmen that always start railing about the big bad old oil companies once again trying to put the wood to their constituents.

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Permalink Reply by little ole 1st grade teacher on January 29, 2014 at 9:36

It is $5.557 today, January 29.  It probably went up because of all the cold that is hitting the United States.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on January 29, 2014 at 10:32

I have NYSE on and am watching it go up.  Yea!!! at least for right now.

It did drop Monday to $4.93 or so.

At least it woke some of the folks on this site..they had been quiet for couple of months.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2014 at 10:35

Yes, I agree.

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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on January 29, 2014 at 12:22

joe, as noted above by the little ole 1st grade teacher, feb did roll off today @ $5.557.

in access trading mar, apr and may are slightly (.01-.02) down as of now (w/15 minute delay).

best regards, jim

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Permalink Reply by dbob on January 29, 2014 at 14:08

Few other notes - storage report is expected to come in with 170 BCF withdrawal or more tomorrow.  Should see a similar decline next week.  net, we are probably going to see storage at the end of the season at 1.6 TCF or below.   If we manage to leave the season at 1.4 BCF or lower, its pretty bullish.  Anything above 1.6 BCF is pretty bearish. 

The best thing (IMHO) about the pricing is that it sets a pattern for next year that will probably allow some operators to hedge.

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Permalink Reply by tc on January 29, 2014 at 14:32

Considering that by the end of Jan. (includes the next 2 reports) the storage level will be close to 2 TCF, I can see the US easily using 1 TCF in Feb. & Mar. and end the season below 1 TCF.

Since a lot of small to mid size operators report earning in mid Feb., it will be interesting to see if any report an increase in hedging.

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Permalink Reply by dbob on January 29, 2014 at 16:22

TC - production has been pretty strong in the east region - I don't see us using 1 TCF in February and March, unless the cold snaps continue.  

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Permalink Reply by dbob on January 29, 2014 at 17:52

And the climate prediction center shows below normal temperatures in most of the US for the next two weeks..

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Permalink Reply by Paul on January 29, 2014 at 15:14

The higher the better I say!!! It's been a tough last year and higher NG prices would be very welcome financially speaking. I would love to see $10 to $29 for NG!!!

Paul

But lt.'s keep Propane priced as low as possible! Oh wait!! It's all related isen't it?

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on January 29, 2014 at 15:32

Paul,

I don't agree with the 10 - 20 range you are looking for. What most people don't understand is that the low price of NG probably saved us from going into a full blown depression in the last 5 years. The low price allowed manufacturing, the chemical industries and power generation to hold on until things got better. And now all are growing. I'm looking for a range of 4.50 to 6.50 for the foreseeable future. When we get in that range then there will be more drilling and the economics will still be there to support economic growth in most areas of the economy. I don't think we will see prices in the 3's again. At least that is my hope.

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