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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant yesterday

Both the Haynesville and Mid-Bossier shales are limited in thickness (~300' to 500') so I think one bench each.  Over the years operators have experimented with the landing depth in each but the variances are relatively small.  I look at how much a well is producing of the recoverable reserves by looking at the pounds of proppant per linear foot of lateral.  Early wells 1500 to 2100# per foot.  Mid play wells 2500 to 3000#.  Current version fracks are about 3500 to 3600#.  There are other completion design elements that also play a part.  Length of stage, number and placement of perforation clusters. Those early wells (eight well spacing) based on recoverable reserves estimates would have produced ~12.5% each.  I think that the actual recovered was more like 5%.  So is half the reserves still remaining in those units?  See EXCO HA units.  Since rock quality varies across the basin, it is impossible to provide an estimate that covers all locales.  I think it is informative to look at the units where operators are re-fracking early version wells.  Here again there are variances across the play.  I think the most re-fracks have been done by Aethon including those by their predecessor QEP (Questar).  QEP stopped drilling new wells and did only refracks the last two years they operated.  Aethon by now has likely passed 65+ refracks and in many instances refracks the old well or wells when they drill new long lateral wells in those units and have a completion crew on site.

I'll hope for responses by Rock Man and Ryan.

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Permalink Reply by Ryan Howrish 12 hours ago

Re-fracs are an interesting operation.  What is the intended purpose of a re-frac?  Is it to protect existing reserves from the frac of a new well?  Is it just to increase production on an old well to ensure it is producing in paying quantities?  Is it to economically access new reserves from "bypassed" pay from the original frac?  If the intent is to only access new reserves "left over" from the original frac, I have never seen an economic re-frac.  If the intent is to protect reserves from an offset frac, you can convince yourself that re-fracs are economic.

From a mineral owner's perspective, you don't care about the capital deployed; you want every molecule of hydrocarbon to be sold.  From an operator's perspective, they need to earn a return on their capital deployed, so there are competing objectives.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant 12 hours ago

Aethon Refrac AFE.

AETHON%20REFRAC%20AFE.pdf

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Permalink Reply by Ryan Howrish 12 hours ago

Great questions!  I will answer the easy question first - bottom hole pressure absolutely matters in shales.  Look at the productivity of wells in the far northern extents of the play vs. wells in the core.  They are not the same.

Your question about drilling wells between existing producing wells is an interesting one.  From a mineral owner's perspective, every additional or incremental molecule of gas is great because it results in more money in your pocket.  From an operator's perspective, that is not always the case. If a new well will never pay out or will suffer from reduced productivity, the well should not be drilled  Infill/offset drilling is for an operator is always a risk/  As you noted, depending on how far away a new well is from an existing well, the frac may not be as effective (old well acts a a pressure sink). From an operator's perspective, you don't necessarily want 4 wells vs. 8 wells because the capital is less.  You want to drill as many wells as possible that do not interfere in the short term (using non-specific language because inter-well spacing isn't necessarily a technical question, but an economic one, and it always changes).  If gas prices are $8, you may have one development plan.  If gas prices are $3, you may have a very different one. Infill drilling and spacing off existing wells is an ongoing conversation within operators' development teams, but it's not an easy question to answer.  

I don't think the Haynesville or Bossier targets are thick enough to have more than one target or bench.  That may not be true everywhere in the play, but it's generally accurate.

For mineral owners in the "legacy" Haynesville basin, I would ignore the Western Haynesville.  It may be the same geologic formation, but it is a very different play/.

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