I've read conflicting info/opinions about BP in S.A. Co. - Does anybody have any reliable info? THANK YOU!

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Let’s see.  BP who has an unlimited budget to spread across all of their basins.  Oil, Gas, wet Gas, overseas, etc.  Why would they drill dry gas acreage that is already HBP?  I would not if I were them in this price environment.  

Jay -

So based on your reply should we not lease to BP at this time and seek others interested in leasing even if at a lower price or should we still take them on in anticipation of 2021 or 2022?

- Thanks

Bill, I will be interested to see Jay's answer however the lack of detail in the BP lease offer makes it harder to provide an opinion.  BP as an operator is likely to provide better terms than a speculator or a smaller operator.  A somewhat less satisfying lease might get you wells more quickly than BP but that's a coin flip as whether it is better for a lessor.

Yes - according to what I see, they act like the haynesville is the best GAS play anywhere around - on the other hand, I think I saw where they plan to only have 3 rigs for the entirety of the play... seems to me - the problem word may be GAS.  Some people say gas will go below $2 this year - - THANKS!

Here is an updated gas price forecast.  

While December weather adjusted balances improved on increased LNG demand (+~2 bcf/d since October) and a temporary peak in supply (November at ~96bcf/d), the forward curve has continued to come under pressure given weak weather trends and concerns on balances in H1’20. We continue to expected prices to weaken further in Q1’20 towards $2/mcf, absent a weather event, as our weather adjusted model points to 2bcf/d oversupply. That said, with the 2020 forward curve now at ~$2.29/mcf and 2021 at ~$2.42/mcf, investors will be looking for further cuts to capital plans and growth to be announced during upcoming conference calls. Both economics and cash flow do not support drilling at current levels, and we continue to expect a material collapse in Haynesville drilling in H2’20 as hedge books roll down for both private and public producers. We remain defensive in our positioning, but do see line of sight to a turn in fundamentals if producers respond accordingly with budgets.

I will leave the leasing advice to the landmen.  Just don't lease without the use of a good O/G attorney.

I know they reduced their rig count down from 6 to 2 in E. TX. and I've been told by a BP lessor that they expect to maintain the slower drilling program into 2021. XTO has stopped drilling in Dist. 6.

BPX has not filed for a Louisiana permit to drill since March 2018.

WOW to the LA permit hiatus!  Didn't know it.  I DID accidentally meet a young nice-guy last year that said he was a company 'pumper' that had been transferred from LA to TX - 

Correction.  BPX has never filed for a Louisiana permit to drill.  The last wells listed for the company were permitted and drilled by BHP before the company was acquired by BP.

BP still has not moved all of their wells to their org id in SONRIS.  There are active well still showing up with 

B6986 BHP BILLITON PETRO (KCS RESOURCES), LLC

Yeah, I noticed that only BPX and BPX (WSF) were listed.  Still no new permits under that listing (BHP BILLITON PETRO (KCS RESOURCES), LLC).

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