From Marketwatch:

By Myra P. Saefong

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Natural-gas futures on Friday briefly added to losses before recovering after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported that supplies of natural gas fell 97 billion cubic feet for the week ended Dec. 27. Total stocks now stand at 2.974 trillion cubic feet, down 562 billion cubic feet from a year ago and 289 billion cubic feet below the five-year average, according to the report, which was delayed by a day due to the New Year's Day holiday. February natural gas /quotes/zigman/2307990/realtime NGG14 -0.51% was at $4.246 per million British thermal units, down 5 cents, or 1.2%. It was trading around $4.245 per million BTUs before the data. It fell as low as $4.199 immediately after the report.

From EIA:

Working gas in storage was 2,974 Bcf as of Friday, December 27, 2013, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decline of 97 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 562 Bcf less than last year at this time and 289 Bcf below the 5-year average of 3,263 Bcf. In the East Region, stocks were 226 Bcf below the 5-year average following net withdrawals of 67 Bcf. Stocks in the Producing Region were 27 Bcf below the 5-year average of 1,088 Bcf after a net withdrawal of 13 Bcf. Stocks in the West Region were 36 Bcf below the 5-year average after a net drawdown of 17 Bcf. At 2,974 Bcf, total working gas is within the 5-year historical range. Working Gas in Underground Storage Compared with 5-Year Range

Note: The shaded area indicates the range between the historical minimum and maximum values for the weekly series from 2008 through 2012.
Source: Form EIA-912, "Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Report." The dashed vertical lines indicate current and year-ago weekly periods.

Poster's notes:

So, it would appear that tc was correct in his prognosticating reduced industrial and commercial use and drawdown during the early holiday period.  We are still within the five-year range for gas, though inventories at this date are within ±3% of the floor of this range, and almost 9% below the five-year average for this date.

I look with anticipation to the results over the next couple of weeks as the Northern Border, Upper Midwest and Northeast emerge from some of the coldest temperatures in years.  Forecasts for these areas show frequent bouts of intensely cold weather persisting into February.

Tags: eia, gas, marketwatch, natural, ngs, storage

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Thanks.  It hurts to be wrong...  props to TC

Is COLD---- BURN THE GAS BOYS    :-)   $5 soon

We won't see $5.  People forget that the NG price that they see now is a futures price for Feb. 14 delivery, so it already has much of the very cold weather prediction already factored into its price.  In a few weeks it will be the March contract and winter is almost over in the mid-south.  Also just a decade ago 3 Tcf of storage would been the max capacity for winter storage and not the figure after 2 month of withdrawals.  IMO to have sustain $5 prices the NG industry has to show that it can't refill the storage reserves during the injection season.

i wholeheartedly agree with posts made in/on this thread today.

fwiw, the 1st nymex print > $5.00/MMBtu is Jan '23.

money talks and ........ well, you know the rest.

Jay--- true but demand going to increase next few years by at least 15% due to LNG export plus increase daily use in USA -- true USA has enough to met this increase but will require more drilling -- operator greedy but not stupid they know how to balance drilling to meet demand to keep price as high as possible so $5 base is very possible to maintain for years plus don't forget Mexico has contracted for extra 2-3 BCFd also will have spikes higher with weather---I am very bullish on NG over next many years ( No i am not expecting 2006-7 with $14 again but 5-7 range not out of question along with $3.5 at times)

Speaking of the cold... what impact is the 'Arctic Blast' having on the reserves even with the average cold factored in? And are you down in Texas and Louisiana feeling any of the effects from it? Out here in Oregon are looking at temps down in the high 20's to upper 30's and are expecting our annual rains to be headed in at some point which according to some be excessive at some point. 

A friend of mine with a small farm in upper Minnesota said his temp was -33 this morning with a light wind blowing... so cold that the flowing water into one of his cattle tanks still froze and is just building up a mound of ice over it. His Dad said last time he remembered it getting this cold, he was in High School... think his old man just hit the mid 80's mark, so I would guess he is talking 65 years ago(?) or so.

Right now we are cold, but not too bad off.  Next Monday and Tuesday its going to get really really cold here.

It is a mild afternoon this Saturday in south Louisiana .... However that will change dramatically early next week as we expect the temp to drop into the low twenties, some forecasters have said into the teens here in the Felicianas, some 20 miles north of Baton Rouge.

Saw this as 'Headline News'... wondering if we will see this reflected in prices are has it already been factored in?



the natural gas intelligence TGPL Zn 6 - NY, a nyc proxy swing gas "index" price, for gas flow today, as reported in today's WSJ is: $56.59/MMBtu.

this index price reflects ngi's best sense of the most common price for that reporting point. they, ngi, also report the absolute high and low prices by point. however, the WSJ doesn't print those.

fwiw, a high price of $99.00/MMBtu at the nyc citygate doesn't surprise me a bit given their weather today.

and, imo, it couldn't happen to nicer guys.


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