Wowzers! Record 359 Bcf EIA Natural Gas Storage Pull Delivers on Lofty Expectations

http://www.naturalgasintel.com/articles/113022-wowzers-record-359-b...</>

It's a new record -- and it wasn't even close.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a staggering 359 Bcf withdrawal from U.S. natural gas stocks for the week ending Jan. 5, a bullish surprise that easily toppled the previous record set in January 2014.

The February contract had already run up above $3.00 ahead of the 10:30 a.m. EDT release of the final number. Once the -359 Bcf figure crossed trading desks, prices quickly bid up above $3.055 before briefly see-sawing back below $2.980. By 11 a.m. EDT, the prompt month was trading around $3.01, up about 10 cents from the previous settle.

Prior to Thursday, the largest net storage pull on record from EIA was a 288 Bcf withdrawal reported on Jan. 10, 2014. The 359 Bcf withdrawal in this week’s report is more than double the year-ago and five-year average withdrawals of 151 Bcf and 162 Bcf, respectively.

Coming off the most potent stretch of heating demand since the notorious polar vortex-influenced 2013-2014 winter, consensus estimates before the report had predicted a record withdrawal. But even with such lofty expectations, the actual number still surpassed the median estimates by around 25 Bcf.

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sorry...can't read the story unless you subscribe. thanks anyway.

I don’t subscribe to NGIntel but was able to read the article shortly after David posted it here today.

The current raw source report is available from EIA:

Weekly Gas Storage Report

This beat consensus estimates by an average of 25 Bcf...

- - (((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((()))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) - -

- cheap. abundant. homegrown. clean. natural. gas. -

natural gas

- good for america. good for the world. -

- - (((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((((()))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))) - -

- lol. { `_`} .

Now, if the lower 48 can just stay below freezing for the next two months.......

- i just got a head's up from my "near west" Houston complex management.

- WARNING! ice Tue Wed.

- geebus Houston in Jan? just say the word ice and power responds bye-bye.

- lol. "they" got us good with Harvey. (no. the other Harvey. that wa LA-CA's Harvey lmao).

- now i guess "they" may have a go with ice. 

- but "their" snow was delightful.

- geebus i better go shoppin' lol.

- { `_`} (-_- ) .

Quick bump on this thread -

While the headline two weeks ago was properly focused on the record natural gas draw, what has escaped some notice has been then both the four-week draw and its impact on natural gas stores.  The two-, three- and four-week draws are also coming off of historic cumulative drawdowns.

For the first down since records have been kept, four-week withdrawals rose above 1 Tcf (1,036 Bcf, topping the previous mark of 980 Bcf).  The effect of this development has taken current natural gas inventories from 6% below five year average and well within five-year range to 17.5% below the five-year average and outside the five year range by 2.5%.  According to EIA, should weekly draws merely track the five-year average for the remainder of the heating season (through March 31), working gas stocks will approach 1.2 Tcf (29% below five-year average).

It would appear that a larger than average drawdown awaits us tomorrow as well - tune in for updates.

Thanks for the update and analysis, Dion.

Another quick update:

NG withdrawals slowed for the most recent reporting week (week ending January 26) to a net 99 Bcf.  This differs from the average net withdrawal for the stated week (160 Bcf) and slightly above last year's total for the same week (92 Bcf).  The slackening withdrawal has resulted in a return of current inventory to just within the working five-year range, although more than 400 Bcf below the current five-year average.

It would appear that the moderated demand and current ENSO and short-to-moderate term prediction models has had a depressing effect on current spot and future pricing in natural gas.  NOAA Climate Prediction Center currently projects a further weakening of La Nina to a more ENSO-neutral environment with the coming spring.  Lower than normal predicted temperatures persist only in the upper Northwest and Midwest, with a neutral to above-normal expectation along the Eastern Seaboard and New England.

Links:

Natural Gas Storage Report

Seasonal Forecast Outlook and Discussion

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