We are seeing a new trend of earlier and colder Winters. The price of NG is starting to climb. The question is: When will the price hit $5.00. May be before March 1st. Any other guesses? 

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yes, sir. high electricity prices are nothing when you're running from fire or having to enjoy a large glassful of sand in order to whet your thirst.

One of the biggest things to look at this year is going to be how the injection season turns out. Over the past 3-5 years power supply coal plants have been phased out left and right, mostly replaced by natural gas fuel ones. I know that our supply of natural gas has increase over the past years I feel that power supply conversion could play a big factor in the injection season. If we have a normal to hot summer, the need for natural gas to power the grid could cause issues in replenishing the natural gas storage. 

I guess all I am trying to get at is that demand for natural gas used to be mostly if not solely related to direct consumer heating usage in the winter(natural gas heaters), however, now that is being used not only for direct consumer heating usage, direct commercial energy/manufactoring usage and indirect energy grid supply (power supply). Because of these factors natural gas production in the spring/summer/fall will not solely go to storage like it has been in the past. Will this effect the injection season, who knows? But I think it is something to look in the future.

Jay, with all the rigs that are now drilling for liquids, are there really available rigs with top drives available to move into dry gas plays?  Just wondering out loud.

I will say yes.  Look they are talking about adding 15 rigs to the TMS in the next year, so if the IRR is good enough, rigs can be found.  Also with improved drilling times in basins like the Eagle Ford, more rigs are being freed up.  I would be more concerned with the lack of completion crews as that process has not seemed to enjoy the same increase in time efficiency as drilling.

Jay, did your subscription service accurately predict the drop to under $2.00 a while back?

It looks like NG is above $6.00!   $6.11!


I just heard that it was over $6.00 on the radio and when I looked here, it is at $6.15...how if it holds!


Some data for discussion here prior to the EIA report tomorrow (which I will likely post as long as Adubu is AWOL)...

Previous early week estimates for this week's report pegged withdrawals near 210 bcf; however the online edition of WSJ reports the following earlier today:

"Analysts and traders expect government data scheduled for release Thursday to show that natural-gas inventories fell by more than usual for this time of year.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is expected to report that 249 billion cubic feet of gas were withdrawn from storage during the week ended Feb. 14, according to the average forecast of 13 analysts and traders surveyed by The Wall Street Journal.

For the Feb. 14 week, the median estimate is for a decline of 248 bcf. Estimates range from a fall of 235 bcf to a drop of 267 bcf.

The estimate for Feb. 14 is above last year's 127-bcf withdrawal from storage for the same week.

If the storage estimate is correct, inventories as of Feb. 14 will total 1.437 trillion cubic feet, 40% below the year-ago level and would be the lowest level for February since 2004."

As Jay (Shalegeo) indicated, NWS temperature estimates for the next 7 days are below average for a large wedge of the country throughout the Midwest and trending to the Northeast. The revised guidance on this week's estimates (+20% withdrawal estimate) and anticipated colder weather ahead appear to be baked into the cake.

So once again, we are trending deeper into "pre-Shale" storage ranges, ca. 2004. Tune in tomorrow...

The high yesterday was $6.40. The open for today was $6.095 and we are currently at $6.077. I think the question is: How high will it go before Winter ends? And will the price stay in the $4 - $5.00 range through the year?


Check my last thread (now that ngs data is publicly available) - all indications are that northeast end suppliers and marketmakers will try to blunt any sharp peaks prior to the end of injection season.  What is apparent is that gas volumes that can be brought to market quickly is growing and appears to be somewhat limited only by transportation capacity.  If ranges of these type become the new normal as far as "storage yoyo", we might need to look at additional storage capacities being brought to bear (or export facilities realized).  As we saw during the previous "full pool" - no place to store, the market tanks.

Off topic, stayed in HUNTSVILLE, Texas last night. A lot of oil / gas men are staying there. Working Madisonville and Centerville area. Hotel rooms tough to come by and prices of rooms sky high. Just a little news about what I'm seeing in some areas. Go Shelby County!


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