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Permalink Reply by jim weyland on December 9, 2013 at 13:22

true

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Permalink Reply by Bill R on December 20, 2013 at 12:23

We swim in the 'Special Interest' groups here in Northwest Oregon... part of the "Keep Portland Weird" contingency that flushed out of the sewers when the 'Occupy' Armies were imported in here... Name a Environmental group that has an anti-American or anti-Energy agenda and they most likely have either an office or a Lawyer located in Portland. Many of us assume that a lot of their funding comes from just who you said.... these are the same people who petitioned the State of Oregon to paint the telephone poles along the railroad a camouflage color in the Columbia River Gorge so that they would not distract from the natural beauty.... I think we have too many 'want-to-be Hippies without a clue'...  

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Permalink Reply by Tom Hough on December 10, 2013 at 5:02

George Soros

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on December 1, 2013 at 12:27

I think it will reach $5 by end of this coming January.

Why?  Iran got a deal too good to be true..you know what I mean about that kind of thing.

They should be shaking in their boots...it set them up.

Its ripe for someone to take out their nuke facilities...and for the blame to be put on and retaliation done to the nation that is innocent. 

It will affect supplies from mid east in all kinds of ways, get rid of a pesky little country for Obama and   make Palestinians happy and create the massive diversion that DC needs right now.

Very touchy times right now.  Nuclear shoes about to be tossed and dropped.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 1, 2013 at 15:00

Any significant energy ramification of a non-proliferation agreement with Iran will be to the price of oil.  If Iran is allowed to resume crude export with no restrictions and OPEC continues production quotas as announced crude prices will fall.  If the decline is sharp enough it could negatively impact some high cost liquid shale plays which would not be profitable at prices below $75 to $80/barrel.

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Permalink Reply by Krkyoldhag on December 1, 2013 at 17:57

But that's all based on stability of the region.  I don't think its going to remain stable. 

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 2, 2013 at 2:30

As long as there are no sanctions on Iran export and OPEC doesn't reduce production the impact on global crude prices will be there regardless of what goes on in non-producing countries such as Egypt and Syria.  There is tolerance built into pricing for a certain amount of instability in a region where it is common place.

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Permalink Reply by adubu on December 2, 2013 at 3:16

Skip is correct  Iran now will export more Oil and will have negative effect on prices which in turn will decrease rigs in USA if prices get to about $75 WTI which will decrease NG from liquid rich shale along with already decrease drilling in Dry NG shale then add in LNG exports in next few years we will see NG prices slowly increase to the $5-6 range in next 2-3 years and stay in that range for many years to come--- good for NG but bad for oil prices; however with time oil go back to $90 range with NG staying in $5-6 range

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Permalink Reply by tc on December 2, 2013 at 3:25

The big wild cards are can Iran behave itself and if oil gets cheap will China and India go on another oil consumption growth surge.

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Permalink Reply by Joe Aldridge on December 2, 2013 at 3:54

adubu,

I agree with the $75.00 price of oil if everything goes well in the Mid-East. If things go nuts over there then I would guess $120+. However, I don't see the connection to NG. I think the immediate price increase for Gas will be because of an early and cold Winter and more use of gas for electric generation. Also, no one seems to factor in the direct conversion of NG to Diesel. There are a number of plants that are going online at the present and more are planned. That will have an effect sooner or later. The export of NG as CNG will always be minor as far as I see it.

So my prediction stands. $5.00 by January 15, 2014 with a peak at about $6.50+ by Winter's end.

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Permalink Reply by jffree1 on December 2, 2013 at 6:22

I agree, Joe, that Adubu see an inverse correlation between oil & gas that I don't see. The prices moved in tandem until the shale glut forced them to move apart. He is seeing gas going up because oil is going down and I think the markets (end users) have enough separation that an inverse move in prices is not going to happen. Gas going up is not dependent on oil going down because there are not enough common end users of the two commodities now that gas is replacing coal for electricity generation.

If and when there is increased transportation fuel demand for NG then there may be the kind of fluctuation he suggests (and as you said)... just not today.

I see NG staying range bound $4.00-4.50 through 2014. Hope you are right, though.

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Permalink Reply by Skip Peel - Mineral Consultant on December 2, 2013 at 6:26

I agree with jffree1 on 2014 nat gas prices.  I think the average for the year will fall within that price range.  If the average is on the upper end of that range it could be the highest yearly average since 2008.

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